Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Near-term forecast
Management guidance-commentary · Q3 uses the release midpoint. FY2026 revenue and mid-2027 monthly product outlook come from management’s Q2 call via third-party transcription; monthly revenue is not annual revenue. Base ramps quarterly into that outlook. All later annual growth is DR estimated.
Capacity and product mix
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Legacy, 800G and 1.6T forecasts reconcile to data-center revenue. Implied high-speed ASP is derived from modeled average capacity and saleable utilization, not a disclosed contract price. CPO/ELSFP is included in the long-term growth envelope, never added a second time. Reported revenue is net of customer-warrant accounting.
Operating earnings
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Non-GAAP gross margin less operating costs and future SBC gives economic EBIT; lease expense is included. Existing award expense is excluded from EBIT because outstanding awards enter dilution. Positive Q2 adjusted net income included foreign tax benefits and is not a recurring operating-profit baseline.
Capital and cash conversion
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Cash capex includes equipment advances, buildings and equipment; paid advances transfer to PP&E without a second cash outflow. June other-assets net of $324m is only a proxy for capital prepayments; 90% is deployable in Base. No noncore value is assigned to the residual. September property purchase and steel payment are included in H2 cash capex, not added twice. Phase-II deposits are separate restricted cash uses and returned later.
Funding and valuation date
Dilikoglu Research estimate · June cash plus reported post-June ATM gross proceeds net of estimated 2% fees starts the cash bridge. Estimated elapsed Q3 operations roll into cash at September 25; subsequent quarters and years are discounted. Bank access uses a fraction of reported undrawn capacity; residual funding is common equity at a scenario issuance price. An ATM authorization is not cash or a funding guarantee. Above-$600m gross financing needs require new authorization.
Debt and dilution
Reported · August 20 actual basic shares include known ATM issuance and award vesting. Outstanding RSUs and scenario-vested PSUs are added once. Convert principal is deducted once and premium dilution is solved at intrinsic value. GAAP carrying premium is not contractual debt accretion. Amazon warrant vesting depends on purchases; initial purchases and future customer mix are DR estimates. Cashless premium shares avoid adding exercise proceeds twice. Forecast warrant contra-revenue is added back to economic EBIT and cash once, limited to a DR estimate of remaining grant-date expense; warrant premium shares then carry the economic cost.
Terminal valuation
Dilikoglu Research estimate · COHR-aligned 20x Base terminal economic EBIT, with 10x/16x/24x alternatives, discounted from 2036. A separate perpetuity FCFF cross-check deducts growth reinvestment. Long-run forecasts, probabilities, WACC and terminal multiples are not management guidance. No price matching or recommendation is implied.
Company Filings
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Company Materials
- Q2 2026 results and Q3 outlook · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-06
Reported and management inputs; independent forecasts are separately labeled in the model source register.
- June 2026 Form 10-Q · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-06
Reported and management inputs; independent forecasts are separately labeled in the model source register.
- Q2 management call (third-party transcription) · Management commentary via third-party transcript · 2026-08-06
Reported and management inputs; independent forecasts are separately labeled in the model source register.
- August ATM prospectus and August 20 share count · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-21
Reported and management inputs; independent forecasts are separately labeled in the model source register.
- August 31 manufacturing leases · Primary company disclosure · 2026-09-01
Reported and management inputs; independent forecasts are separately labeled in the model source register.
- September 4 property acquisition · Primary company disclosure · 2026-09-10
Reported and management inputs; independent forecasts are separately labeled in the model source register.
Financing / Counterparty Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Industry / Market Data
