Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Reported financial anchors and claims
Reported · FY2026 audited May 29 financial statements. July 20 ordinary shares are the latest count located; May awards require a DR post-period vesting bridge. Restricted cash is excluded. ATM cash and issued shares are already in the balance sheet.
FY2027 management outlook
Management guidance-commentary · Revenue $130–150m; CEO and CFO explicitly state pretax non-GAAP profitability of 18–22%. The filed release says net income without specifying pretax. Base adopts the explicit call basis; the after-tax reading is separately sensitized. No tax gross-up in the primary EBIT bridge. Interest and adjusted tax rates remain DR estimates.
Fiscal timing and opening cash
Dilikoglu Research estimate · FY2027 runs June 27, 2026–June 25, 2027. The prior 28-day stub is separate. September 18 cash and working capital are estimated by bridging May statements through the stub and 83/91 of a DR Q1 forecast. Elapsed cash flows are not valued again. Fixed costs, depreciation, award expense and interest use elapsed calendar time; revenue uses the seasonal quarterly ramp.
Orders and customer forecasts
Dilikoglu Research estimate · May backlog plus $20m subsequent bookings underlying July effective backlog plus the separate August $22m order support the order bridge. These are gross dated observations, not a current net backlog. FY2027 bookings include those post-May orders; neither they nor the $41m April order are added again. Unpriced photonics orders, pilot tests and customer capacity forecasts are not guaranteed revenue.
Product economics and cash conversion
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Six mutually exclusive end-market/program revenue paths include systems, initial and repeat consumables and services. They are partitioned into reported product categories, never added on top. FY2027 Base: $50m package AI, $48m existing wafer AI, $24.5m photonics, $17.5m power/other, zero new AI and memory. This reconciles 70% AI, 17.5% photonics and ~30% consumables commentary. All future cohort amounts, product allocations and margins are DR estimates. No unnamed customer identity is inferred. Power/other includes residual service revenue. Orders are not additional revenue.
SBC, awards and tax assets
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Existing awards enter dilution and their remaining noncash expense is added back. Future SBC remains a cash-equivalent economic cost, not an extra share reserve. SAR and unpaid issuance liabilities are excluded from operating working capital and paid once in the interim bridge. Tax assets reduce forecast cash taxes subject to a recovery estimate; no separate DTA addition to equity.
Terminal value, scenarios and Monte Carlo
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Ten fiscal years to FY2036 with a five-year growth normalization. Primary terminal value is recurring economic EBIT after future SBC at 8/12/20/25x for Failure/Bear/Base/Bull. Sector valuation inputs match COHR: WACC 13/11.5/10/9%, terminal growth 1/2/2.5/3%, ROIC 8/10/13/16%; all are DR judgments. Perpetuity FCFF is a separate unblended cross-check. AEHR operating paths remain company-specific. Exit multiples have 15% log dispersion correlated with demand; other simulation distributions remain AEHR-specific.
Customer adoption forecast
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Base existing AI programs expand with device ramps; new AI wafer production begins FY2028 after pilot acceptance. Memory is zero through FY2028, then $5m/$15m/$30m in FY2029–31 conditional on a sponsored development program. Bull permits earlier adoption; Bear/Failure include no memory revenue. These are conditional forecasts, not management multi-year guidance. Package growth assumes second-device expansion; wafer growth does not additionally count conversion of the same package device. Qualification failures require cohort removal.
Pricing and capacity cross-check
Management guidance-commentary · Management described ~$600–700k Sonoma bundles including consumables, ~$5m FOX bundles, roughly $50m FY2027 package revenue, and conditional capacity around 20 external Sonoma and 20 internal FOX systems per month. Revenue / bundle ASP is an illustrative bundle-equivalent diagnostic: separate consumables and services mean it is not a shipment forecast. Manufacturing capacity is not demand or a revenue commitment. Hiring, supplier availability and customer forecasts are required.
Base forecast calibration and delivery conditions
Dilikoglu Research estimate · FY2027 package revenue uses the approximate $50m call anchor; existing wafer AI is 70% of $140m less package revenue; photonics uses the 17.5% midpoint; power/other is the residual. Through FY2031, DR existing package/wafer forecasts reach $145m/$160m as second-device and existing-program ramps recur. New AI contributes $110m only after successful pilot conversion; photonics $95m assumes repeated optical deployments; power/other $42m assumes gradual recovery; memory $30m requires development sponsorship. These dollar paths are analyst scenario judgments, not quantities disclosed by management. At illustrative call pricing, FY2031 Base revenue corresponds to ~223 Sonoma bundles and ~87 FOX bundles if all respective revenue were bundled system sales; repeat consumables reduce implied system needs. Near-term capacity is only a feasibility check. Bull requires further package capacity or higher-value configurations; neither is committed. No capacity figure is added to forecast demand.
Company Filings
- FY2026 Form 10-K · Primary company disclosure · 2026-07-27
Audited financial statements; product revenues; awards; taxes; customer concentration; fully used ATM
- Fiscal calendar change — April 2026 Form 8-K · Primary company disclosure · 2026-04-07
May 30–June 26 transition period; FY2027 June 27, 2026–June 25, 2027
Company Materials
Financing / Counterparty Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Industry / Market Data
