Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Reported operating anchors
Reported · FY26 segment revenue and financial statements. Q4 segment revenue is the run-rate anchor; year-over-year Industrial comparisons include divestitures.
FY27 Q1 outlook
Management guidance-commentary · Revenue range and non-GAAP margin/opex outlook are displayed separately. They are not annual forecasts or GAAP assumptions.
High-speed optics allocation and costs
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Allocate 65% of Q4 Datacenter & Communications to high-speed optics. Other D&C is residual; no separate CPO revenue uplift. Cost weights normalize to reported Q4 consolidated gross margin; 25% fixed and 75% volume-linked costs.
Volume, pricing, capacity and unit cost paths
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Scenario indexes refer to annualized Q4. High-speed delivered volume is capped by annual manufacturing bounds. Annual price erosion and cost improvements are distinct; forecast margins are outputs.
Cash conversion, opex, D&A, tax and capex
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Separate FY26 $0.2803bn acquired-intangible amortization from total $0.521895bn D&A. Forecast amortization uses Note 6 schedule; physical assets have capped remaining bases, 70% equipment/7 years and 30% buildings/20 years, a one-year commissioning lag, and opening CIP released 50/50 over FY27/28. Cost allocation follows reported COGS amortization share and estimated 90% factory-depreciation share. Cash capex remains scenario-driven; SBC is retained as an economic cost.
Equity claims
Dilikoglu Research estimate · June 30 common shares 212.615894m issued less 16.863102m treasury = 195.752792m, aligned to June awards. Reported August count 195.832246m is a cross-check. RSUs, scenario PSU payouts, option premium and cash-settled awards remain separate. Debt principal, finance leases and pension deficit are distinct claims. No additional quarterly share proxy.
Completed NVIDIA issuance
Reported · 7.788161m common shares and $2bn gross proceeds were issued in March. Already reflected in June balances; partnership optionality earns no separate valuation premium.
Restricted cash and minority interests
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Restricted cash is excluded from parent liquidity. Equity bridge values it at 0/50/75/100% of $606.4m and subtracts 1/1/1/1.25x reported NCI book value. Both treatments are proxies, not subsidiary fair-value appraisals.
Discount rate, terminal economics and exit multiple
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Five operating years plus five transition years. Revenue growth, EBIT margin and net reinvestment converge gradually; terminal capex less physical depreciation plus incremental NWC equals NOPAT × g / ROIC. Acquired amortization is excluded from recurring replacement capital. Terminal FCFF matches the final transition economics; no sudden capex release at FY31. Primary terminal value uses FY2036 recurring EBIT (EBIT plus finite acquired-intangible amortization, with SBC retained as an expense) at 8/12/20/25x in Failure/Bear/Base/Bull, discounted to opening FY27. These DR estimates reflect stressed, slower-growth, durable-growth and stronger-growth outcomes; they are not management guidance. Perpetuity FCFF is a separate unblended cross-check. Monte Carlo exit multiples have 15% log dispersion correlated with the operating cycle.
Monte Carlo
Dilikoglu Research estimate · 20,000 seeded draws use the same operating, assets, financing and shareholder-value engine. Correlated price, execution, costs, working capital, credit access and award payouts; estimates also stress high-speed mix, issuance discounts and capital conversion. Paths with negative cash after the bounded operating response have zero common-equity recovery.
Debt maturities and credit commitments
Reported · Repayment schedule and instrument principal come from Note 8. June revolver availability is $664m, below $700m commitment. The $945m August facility was undrawn at August 14 and restricted to the subsidiary borrower’s permitted uses; excluded from parent funding.
Refinancing and available credit usage
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Refinance 0/85/100/100% of annual principal maturities above $0.5bn. Pay smaller amortization from cash. Revolver access is 0/50/100/100% of reported availability; renewal beyond FY2030 at 0/75/100/100% of scenario availability. Fees 2%; annual interest 10/8/6/5.5%. Draw only to replenish the $0.5bn reserve. New financing is not a commitment or equity-value addition. Fee PV reduces value; principal is not subtracted twice from FCFF valuation.
Share award payout and cash-settled awards
Dilikoglu Research estimate · PSUs at 0/50/100/150% of reported units are DR outcomes, not verified contractual payout limits. No future grants added to shares while forecast SBC remains an economic cost. Cash SAR intrinsic value and cash RSUs are deducted dynamically; ordinary options add premium dilution only.
Product roadmap and manufacturing capacity
Management guidance-commentary · InP production doubling in calendar 2026 and 2027 supports capacity expansion directionally. Wafer/device capacity is not delivered transceiver revenue. Qualification, assembly and mix remain analyst estimates.
Residual common equity and distress
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Raise residual cash needs after debt at a scenario discount with 3% issuance fees and per-year availability limits. The equity-value bridge charges discounted issuance fees and below-fair-value transfer only; FCFF already includes operating deficits, so principal funding is not deducted twice. If cash remains negative after the bounded operating response, common value is zero; reserve breaches alone do not imply zero recovery. Annual equivalent share issuance is disclosed separately.
Leases and pensions
Reported / Dilikoglu Research estimate · Finance lease PV $14.233m is debt-like; payments use Note 9. Operating leases remain operating costs and are not subtracted again. $49m combined underfunded pensions are reserved against opening deployable cash and deducted once from equity value; no additional deficit payment in FCFF.
Evidence bands and scenario probabilities
Dilikoglu Research estimate · 10/25/45/20% scenario priors are judgment-based. Comparable product price changes and capacity execution are uncertain. The Base FY27 annual revenue is explicitly compared with the Q1 guidance midpoint; FY28 onward is not management guidance.
Discount-rate and equity-funding assumptions
Dilikoglu Research estimate · WACC 13/11.5/10/9%, cost of equity WACC + 2pp, terminal ROIC 8/10/13/16%; sensitivity ranges are disclosed instead of claiming a reported beta or capital-cost forecast. Equity discounts 50/30/15/10%, per-year raise limits 0/0.5/1/2bn and 3% fees. $7.2m reserve protects cash-award settlement liquidity only; equity claims remain dynamic and are not deducted again.
Scenario estimate ranges
Dilikoglu Research estimate · High-speed allocation 50–80% stress range around 65%; annual comparable-product price erosion 3–9% around 6%, before separately estimated product mix; capital spending ±20%; inventory days ±30; WACC 8–14%; minority value 0.5–2x book. These are sensitivity ranges, not confidence intervals or management targets.
Product mix and funding response
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Base FY27 delivered high-speed volume +65% versus annualized Q4, capacity +80%. Comparable-product price erosion remains 6%; annual product-mix price uplift is 0/3/3/5% and associated unit-cost uplift is 0/1.5/1.5/2.5% across Failure/Bear/Base/Bull. Base net basket pricing changes by -3.18% and unit cost by -4.59% annually. These are DR estimates motivated by the higher-speed roadmap, not disclosed ASP or cost guidance. No separate CPO/OCS premium. A shortfall against the $0.5bn cash reserve is disclosed separately from negative cash. Before assigning zero common recovery to a cash shortfall, the model tests cancellation of 15% then 30% of discretionary expansion spending from the first negative-cash operating year; physical depreciation is protected and subsequent capacity growth falls by the same fraction. No assumed asset-sale proceeds or additional credit. Remaining negative-cash paths receive a conservative zero-common-recovery outcome, not an estimated default probability.
Ordinary Bear versus Failure
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Bear represents slower demand and weaker manufacturing efficiency, not simultaneous product-price collapse and a credit freeze. FY27 high-speed volume stays 1.2x versus Base 1.65x; price 0.97x and annual mix match Base, while unit cost remains 0.99x versus Base 0.95x. Slower expansion uses 10% revenue capex with $1.1/1/1/1/1bn floors. Large maturities refinance 85%, versus Base 100%; 50% revolver access is retained with 75% renewal of that reduced limit. These are DR scenario definitions, not financing commitments. Failure retains operating and credit stress. Priors and valuation discount rates are unchanged.
Manufacturing productivity reassessment
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Base FY27 delivered high-speed volume +65% versus annualized Q4, capacity +80%. Comparable-product price erosion remains 6%; annual product-mix price uplift is 0/3/3/5% and associated unit-cost uplift is 0/1.5/1.5/2.5% across Failure/Bear/Base/Bull. Base net basket pricing changes by -3.18% and unit cost by -4.59% annually. These are DR estimates motivated by the higher-speed roadmap, not disclosed ASP or cost guidance. No separate CPO/OCS premium. Base comparable high-speed cost improves 6% per year and Bull 7%; other D&C improves 3%. These DR assumptions recognize yield, process and scale improvements; Failure/Bear retain 4% high-speed cost improvement. Terminal recurring EBIT targets are 20% Base / 23% Bull, capped by achieved FY31 performance. The 2025 non-GAAP objectives (>42% gross margin, 18% opex and >24% operating margin) are contextual targets, not substituted for modeled margins. SBC stays expensed and finite amortization is modeled separately.
Transition growth after expansion cancellation
Dilikoglu Research estimate · A shortfall against the $0.5bn cash reserve is disclosed separately from negative cash. Before assigning zero common recovery to a cash shortfall, the model tests cancellation of 15% then 30% of discretionary expansion spending from the first negative-cash operating year; physical depreciation is protected and subsequent capacity growth falls by the same fraction. No assumed asset-sale proceeds or additional credit. Remaining negative-cash paths receive a conservative zero-common-recovery outcome, not an estimated default probability. A FY31 expansion cancellation also reduces FY32 high-speed revenue growth by the cancelled fraction, with the lost revenue level carried through later transition years; it cannot preserve the original growth path for free.
Base guidance-aligned margin bridge
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Base FY27 non-GAAP gross-margin planning anchor is the Q1 guidance midpoint 40.5%; DR extensions are 41.5% FY28 and 42.5% FY29–31, meeting the dated >42% objective. Non-GAAP opex scales from Q1 midpoint $0.410bn / $2.3bn revenue to the 18% long-term objective. Reported Q4 COGS SBC $7.4m and opex SBC $46.5m establish separate revenue ratios retained as economic costs. Forecast acquired amortization is deducted separately. Implied cash-cost efficiency factors reconcile the product model to those Base planning margins and stay fixed in Monte Carlo, so price/cost shocks still change margins. This is a DR annual extrapolation and operating-efficiency requirement, not additional company guidance.
Base tax planning rate
Dilikoglu Research estimate · 19% cash tax planning rate uses the midpoint of Q1 non-GAAP tax guidance of 18–20%; applying it across future taxable operating profits is a DR extrapolation, not long-term company guidance.
PhotonLink commercialization
Management guidance-commentary · Revenue ramp expected in calendar Q4 2026 (FY27 Q2); anchor customers and long-term agreements announced. Contract values, standalone margins and minimum purchase obligations are not quantified in the announcement. Included within high-speed optics estimates; no additive revenue or separate platform value.
FY27 quarterly revenue bridge
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Base Q1 uses the $2.3bn guidance midpoint. A constant sequential growth rate solves Q2–Q4 revenue to the existing annual operating forecast. Diagnostic feasibility bridge only; annual liquidity is not represented as a quarterly covenant model. Bear/Failure stress guidance rather than treating the outlook as guaranteed.
Opening capital payables settlement
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Reported $371.779m of PP&E additions included in accounts payable is used as the opening capital-payable proxy, removed from operating working capital and settled in FY27. Settlement is separate from new-investment capex and does not add to PP&E again. Total cash capex includes both; FCFF deducts settlement once, with no second equity-bridge claim. Timing and absence of rolling new capital payables are DR estimates.
Company Filings
Company Materials
Financing / Counterparty Sources
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Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
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Industry / Market Data
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