Model Preview / Research in Progress · Project-financed AI infrastructure landlord
Overview
DILIKOGLU RESEARCH VIEW · MODEL 2026-09-13
Investment summary
Model Preview / Research in Progress · Model-based fair values; no formal recommendation or published price target.
Hut 8’s contracted infrastructure and project-financing model provide a foundation for further development. Additional value depends on converting its power pipeline into signed projects at returns that justify the funding and compensation burden.
Current model Base fair value / share
$90.35
Current model probability-weighted fair value / share
$84.08
Key catalyst
Beacon Point Phase 2 non-recourse financing, followed by 2027 River/Beacon delivery
Principal risk
Early-stage power positions may fail to convert into contracted projects.
USD per share. Valuations are DR model estimates, separate from dated report targets. Scenario probabilities and supporting assumptions appear below.
Contracted project NAV + risked pipeline conversion versus spot-implied pipeline value
Long-duration contracted leases anchor the infrastructure valuation.
Non-recourse project financing can improve capital efficiency while leaving construction and delivery obligations.
The next source of value is repeat conversion of early-stage power positions into signed, financeable projects.
Variant perception
A high-quality infrastructure platform need not be an undervalued stock. Pipeline success must be tested against the market-implied development requirement and the full equity-compensation burden.
What could make us wrong
P2 becomes materially corporate-recourse/equity-heavy, >2-quarter delivery slips, or stabilized comparable cap rates sustain >8%
Key catalysts
Beacon Point Phase 2 non-recourse financing, followed by 2027 River/Beacon delivery
Scenario conclusions are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Company evidence, management guidance and analyst assumptions are distinguished in the analytical model.
Scenario Valuation
Scenario
Probability
Fair value / share
Return vs price
Failure
10%
$7.23
—
Bear
25%
$39.72
—
Base
45%
$90.35
—
Bull
20%
$163.87
—
Probability-weighted fair value: $84.08
Project NAV + risked pipeline option
Monte Carlo median: $79.11. Distributional cross-check, separate from the scenario valuation.
Scenario-mixture sensitivity simulation using the same equity-claims solver. Cloud models vary operating and funding inputs; landlord models vary aggregate recovered NAV components, not individual lease cash flows. No target calibration.
Scenario contributions and downside sensitivity
Derived from the current model above. These are scenario-weighted estimates, not calibrated probabilities of future returns.
Scenario
Weight
Fair value
Contribution to PW
Failure
10%
$7.23
$0.72
Bear
25%
$39.72
$9.93
Base
45%
$90.35
$40.66
Bull
20%
$163.87
$32.77
Bull contributes 39.0% of PW.
Excluding Bull and renormalizing the other weights to 100%: $64.14. Formula: sum of non-Bull weighted values ÷ (1 − Bull weight). This is a conditional diagnostic, not a replacement target.
Company-specific numerical probability calibration is not established. See the operating scenarios and falsifiers in the full analytical model.
Model
Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; published valuation outputs reflect the published research baseline.
Model Preview / Research in Progress. No initiation report or formal recommendation has been published.
Revision history
This register begins with the documented baseline below. It is not a complete historical track record. Snapshot values remain fixed; the investment summary reflects the current published model.
· Baseline recorded
Published model baseline documented
What changed: Added a concise investment summary and began the public revision register. No valuation assumptions or model economics changed in this update.
Why: Provide a dated starting point for tracking future research and valuation changes.
Valuation impact: No change from this documentation update. Earlier model revisions have not been reconstructed.
Recorded Base fair value
$90.35
Recorded PW fair value
$84.08
Model date 2026-09-13 · USD per share · DR estimatesModel provenance
Model SHA-256: dad0878048cc5969df1030ce042384f6193d28d44e0dcb8873da9f2510a8629a
This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Reconstructed research baseline. Forecasts, NAV estimates and missing-input derivations are Dilikoglu Research estimates; rounded source inputs limit precision. Security terms are recovered from the research record, not freshly verified filings.
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