Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
June consolidated balances and income
Reported · June 30 consolidated statements, not parent-only accounts. KRW millions converted to trillions. Q2 D&A rounded from the earnings deck. Investment gains and dividends are excluded from forecast operating FCFF. Exchangeable bonds fully exercised by June; weighted-average EPS dilution is not a remaining convert claim.
Listing, FX and July offering
Reported · One ADS represents 0.1 ordinary share. June outstanding ordinary shares plus 17.79m newly issued shares. Net offering proceeds before other expenses translated at the July 14 closing FX. September 18 ECB-derived KRW/USD is a dated translation convention, not a live quote. Forecast FX and IPO other costs are estimates.
Buyback and share awards
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Assume full KRW40trn authorized buyback completes by opening 2027 at September 18 Korean ordinary close. Deduct the cash and the corresponding ordinary shares together. This is an estimated completion bridge, not a claim of purchases already executed. Add 1m ordinary award-equivalent claims, stress 0.5–2m. Cash costs retain future SBC; no perpetual buyback benefit.
Q3 volumes and FY26 investment
Management guidance-commentary · Q3 DRAM approximately 10% sequential bit growth, NAND low-single-digit growth. The 3% NAND midpoint and KRW47–49trn interpretation of high-40trn capex are DR arithmetic. No annual 2027 revenue or margin guidance is claimed.
HBM allocation, supply and pricing
Dilikoglu Research estimate · HBM included within DRAM. Q2 DRAM/NAND shares of 73/27% are rounded presentation mix proxies; HBM KRW14trn allocation is not disclosed and stressed at KRW10–18trn. FY27 demand and ASP indexes reference annualized Q2. Shared wafer capacity, node productivity, packaging and NAND constrain shipment demand. MU price-normalization rates, priors and terminal return conventions are shared; SK hynix volume, pricing levels, taxes and capex are separately underwritten.
Opening cash and non-operating investments
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Cash plus short-term financial instruments/investments less borrowings, current tax net of tax receivable, customer advances and claims. Long-term financial instruments added separately; long-term investments and associates receive scenario recovery haircuts, with an explicit KRW15trn realization-tax reserve at Base rather than adding investment gains to earnings. Reported deferred-tax liabilities are covered within that reserve, not deducted twice. Operating lease payments remain in operating costs; leases are not subtracted again as financial debt. Noncontrolling interests and subsidiary award reserve deducted.
H2 bridge and capital commitments
Dilikoglu Research estimate · H2 revenue of KRW200trn, 83% gross margin and KRW14trn opex are research forecasts anchored to Q2 and Q3 bit-growth outlook. H2 PPE cash capex of KRW48trn minus reported H1 capex plus KRW0.7trn intangibles. Scenario H2 revenue factors vary. June KRW61.485trn purchase commitments are scheduled within annual cash-capex floors, not deducted again as debt. No value assigned to unconfirmed Japan, packaging disposals or Solidigm fundraising.
Operating costs, assets and working capital
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Cash product costs allocated from reported Q2 COGS excluding estimated 90% manufacturing D&A. Annual asset cohorts charge D&A once; 7/20-year lives, land/CIP/equipment allocations and commissioning lags are assumptions. Other non-trade payables are not all treated as operating: KRW8trn opening operating-accrual proxy, rest represented in cash capex and claim reserves. A 25% tax rate, future margins and capital floors are forecasts, not reported results. Lease D&A is removed from the FCFF add-back using half of H1 ROU depreciation as a Q2 proxy; recurring lease expense remains in costs. H2 and later D&A are research asset-schedule estimates.
DCF, Monte Carlo and portfolio evidence
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Five operating years plus five normalization years; terminal cash reinvestment NOPAT×growth/ROIC. Correlated cycle, execution, costs, capex, working capital, WACC, FX, HBM allocation, noncore recovery and award uncertainty. Judgment-based probabilities, no calibration to market. USD ADS short history must not be filled with Korean ordinary returns.
Quarterly forecast and financing friction
Dilikoglu Research estimate · FY27 quarterly revenue shares are Failure 27/26/24/23%, Bear 25/25/25/25%, Base 23/24/26/27% and Bull 22/24/26/28%. Cash costs and operating expenses follow revenue shares, D&A is even and cash capex follows 22/24/26/28%. Quarter-end working capital uses annualized activity; Q4 reconciles to the annual closing convention. These are allocation estimates, not quarterly company guidance. Funding discounts of 20/10/5/3% plus 2% issuance costs apply only to incremental liquidity shortfalls. The shortfall itself is already in FCFF; only issuance friction is deducted from equity value.
Solidigm financing
Management guidance-commentary · October 1 clarification states that no financing structure has been determined. Solidigm operating cash flows stay within consolidated NAND; no separate listing proceeds, additional SOTP uplift or speculative dilution are assumed.
Comparison with Micron cycle assumptions
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Scenario probabilities, WACC and long-run ASP decline rates match MU. SK hynix Base/Bull normalization begins at half-rate in FY28; the refined MU model holds FY28 prices before half-rate FY29 normalization. This difference is retained because SK hynix has not disclosed aggregate LTA price floors or annual revenue guarantees comparable to the durability assumed in MU. Company-specific contracts, margins and capacity are not interchangeable.
Company Filings
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Company Materials
Financing / Counterparty Sources
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Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
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Industry / Market Data
