Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Financial anchors
Reported · USD and share amounts converted to billions. Q2 segment revenues and H1 cash flow reconcile to filings; short-term securities are separate from long-term equities.
Near-term outlook
Management guidance-commentary · Q3 midpoint and non-GAAP margin/opex anchor Base. Normalized tax guidance is not a guarantee of GAAP tax.
Long-range targets
Management guidance-commentary · Analyst Day targets cover three to five years from November 2025. They are aspirations with execution risk, not an annual guarantee; model comparison uses FY2025 to FY2030.
Operating forecasts
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Five product cohorts sum to reported segment totals. H2 mix starts with the estimated Q2 split. 2027–2030 GPU and CPU growth are explicit annual paths from annualized H2; others compound at scenario rates. For 2031–2035, growth = 2030 product growth × (1 − transition step/5) + terminal growth × transition step/5. Base GPU growth therefore slows from 50% in 2030 to 40.6%, 31.2%, 21.8%, 12.4% and 3.0%. This is a DR competitive-normalization path, not a management commitment.
Cash conversion
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Receivables, inventory, payables and residual operating assets/accruals roll forward. Loan, restricted cash and investments are excluded from operating assets; capex payable is excluded from operating liabilities and paid separately once. Commitments are allocated between procurement and service expense floors, without double counting normal costs. Uncommenced leases have estimated deployment schedules and excess capacity loss exposure.
Employee awards and customer warrants
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Existing awards enter dilution, remaining expense is added back once; future SBC remains a cost. Customer warrant eligibility uses estimated customer revenue converted to GW through expiry and a smooth price-hurdle proxy. Price and dilution are solved jointly. No duplicate warrant fair-value deduction.
Capital and terminal value
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Reported finite amortization is allocated through 2035; physical depreciation uses four/five-year remaining/new asset lives. Terminal cash flow removes expired amortization and finances growth at stated ROIC. WACC/perpetuity DCF is primary; discounted EV/EBIT is an unblended cross-check.
Simulation
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Shared demand/execution shocks drive revenue, margin, capex, collection days, warrant delivery, investments and discount rates. 20,000 seeded draws use the deterministic engine.
Liquidity and revolver
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Reported $5bn undrawn revolving facility is separate from cash and the $5.5bn commercial-paper program. Scenario-accessible revolver capacity is 50% / 75% / 100% / 100%; draws cover the operating reserve where possible, incur a 0.5% draw fee and interest, and repay from surplus cash or by estimated May 2031 maturity. Rates are 10% / 8% / 6.5% / 6%. No double counting of commercial-paper capacity or automatic renewal. Facility principal and interest affect the cash schedule; draw fees reduce FCFF. WACC captures debt financing in enterprise value, so future draws are not a second opening net-debt deduction.
Subsequent acquisitions and strategic funding
Dilikoglu Research estimate · World Labs shares = announced $8.2bn stock value / $649.42 estimated issuance price. Anthropic assumes full $5bn funding at 1.5 years; existing private-recovery scenarios apply. Liquidity uses full investment cash cost; DCF uses the investment loss allowance. Taalas unknown consideration is excluded pending disclosure and stressed at $1/$3/$5bn. These are not additive sales forecasts.
2027 operating outlook and comparable annual bridge
Management guidance-commentary / Dilikoglu Research estimate · Q2 transcript: >100% Data Center growth and >70% server CPU growth in FY2027. DR estimates use 145% GPU and 60% CPU growth versus annualized H2 2026. H1 CPU/other-DC is allocated using the estimated Q2 CPU share of reported Data Center revenue; it is not disclosed standalone server revenue. FY2027 GPU revenue is approximately $35bn, an estimate rather than guidance.
Company Filings
Company Materials
Financing / Counterparty Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Industry / Market Data
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