Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Sector valuation framework
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Use AMD scenario probabilities, WACC, terminal growth, ROIC and exit multiples. Perpetuity FCFF is primary, consistent with NVDA and AMD; exit EBIT multiple is a separate cross-check. Broadcom operating forecasts remain independent.
Near-term and multi-year outlook
Management guidance-commentary · Base Q4 revenue $34.8bn and non-GAAP operating margin 66%; AI FY2027/28 revenue $115bn/$230bn from management call, corroborated across transcripts. Q4 capex $1.4bn and tax16%. Non-AI residual reconciles rounded segment guidance.
Segment economics
Dilikoglu Research estimate · AI plus non-AI reconcile semiconductor revenue; software remains separate. Q4 semiconductor operating margin is solved against consolidated guidance and estimated software margin. Long-term margins include an explicit future-SBC charge. Segment cash cost ratios use filing tables, not inconsistent third-party transcript gross-margin text.
Awards and cash conversion
Dilikoglu Research estimate · August common shares plus outstanding RSUs; add back only remaining compensation attached to those existing awards. Future SBC remains an economic cost. Contract assets/liabilities include long-term balances. Changes in deferred revenue enter CFO through NWC once. Factoring is not added again.
Financial support and commitments
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Conditional customer notes are potential Broadcom investments, not debt. Model cash advance and later recovery separately from maximum backstop exposure. No offset between losses is assumed without evidence that contractual claims overlap; full-overlap sensitivity is shown. Procurement commitments constrain inventory purchases and can trigger excess-inventory losses. Service commitments form a floor under recurring cash expenses, not a second expense.
Debt and tax claims
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Debt ledger principal/coupons match reported $61.079bn; maturity times use disclosed month midpoints. Principal is subtracted from opening equity once and repaid in liquidity schedules. Opening tax and accrued-interest claims are deducted once and paid from cash. Revolver is capped, not renewed beyond January2030; no CP duplication.
Outlook and cash-flow cross-check
Management guidance-commentary · September 8 remarks reiterate the FY2027/28 AI outlook and describe mid-40s free-cash-flow conversion. This is a reasonableness check on cash FCF before future stock compensation is treated as an economic cost. Transcript numerical/unit errors mean the filing and formal release retain precedence.
Scenario execution and taxes
Dilikoglu Research estimate · FY2027/28 AI realization factors apply directly to each annual management outlook, without a second Q4 execution haircut. Q4 cash-tax proxy uses management 16%; subsequent periods use scenario normalized tax rates. The non-GAAP guided rate is applied to modeled taxable operating earnings as an explicit DR approximation.
Company Filings
Company Materials
Financing / Counterparty Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Industry / Market Data
