Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Financial statements and aligned claims
Reported · June 27 cash, debt, common and awards are aligned. Rounded filing share counts are used. August common 89.7m is a cross-check only; combining it with June debt and awards would double-count some conversions. NVIDIA preferred participates one-for-one; its cash is already on balance sheet. The noncash debt-exchange charge does not recur.
Near-term operating outlook
Management guidance-commentary · Q1 FY27 revenue $1.225–1.275bn and non-GAAP operating margin 39.5–40.5% anchor Base. Subsequent quarters are estimates, not full-year guidance.
FY2028 outlook bridge
Management guidance-commentary · September Citi management commentary targets $40 FY2028 EPS; third-party transcripts cross-checked, not an audited forecast. Q1 planning diluted shares 102m and tax 16.5% come from August call commentary. The $2bn quarterly scale operating-margin commentary is contextual, not an annual forecast.
Revenue, mix and capacity
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Base FY27 quarterly growth 24/20/20% follows Q1 midpoint. FY28 revenue is inferred from $40 EPS × 102m planning shares / (1 − 16.5% tax) / 44% non-GAAP margin, assuming zero net financing income. The implied revenue is not management revenue guidance. Components/Systems allocation, volume capacity and price erosion are independent estimates. No CPO, OCS or NVIDIA partnership premium is added separately. FY29–31 Base growth 25/20/15%, then five years of gradual convergence. FY27 margins ramp from the scenario Q1 anchor to its FY28 margin; the annual figure is revenue-weighted. This bridge is estimated, not quarterly margin guidance.
Margins and SBC
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Q1 Base 40% non-GAAP operating margin, FY28 44%, then convergence to scenario economic margins. SBC remains an economic cost; remaining expense for opening diluted awards is added back to avoid charging both shares and service cost. Future grants stay in economic expense and are not added again to shares. Gross award dilution is equivalent to cash withholding plus net shares for valuation; liquidity separately reserves 30% withholding at the frozen reference. Capacity growth is reduced proportionally when capex intensity falls below the scenario anchor; extra capex alone does not create demand.
Capital and working capital
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Separate capital creditors from operating liabilities. Asset additions produce capital payable balances; cash capex equals additions minus change in capital payables. CIP commissions with a one-year lag; 80% equipment over 7 years, 20% buildings over 20. Acquisition contract-liability release is noncash; only cash-backed deferred balances fund operations. AR/inventory/AP days and 75% operating prepaids are estimates. DTA use limited to half reported balance as tax shield, not also added to value.
Convertible settlement and hedge
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Outstanding original principal is deducted once; only conversion premium dilutes. 2032 capped calls offset premium between $187.77 and $268.24, with recovery stressed. No hedge assumed on older tranches. Conversion eligibility is 130% for 20 of 30 trading days; June notes already qualify. Funding conservatively settles all note principal in FY27, versus contractual maturity sensitivity. June-to-August additional requests are $238.4m, not $757.8m new debt. Premium is valued with intrinsic settlement at modeled IV, not an option-pricing appraisal. Early hedge termination terms and make-whole adjustments remain limitations.
Other claims and funding
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Reserve tax payable, pension, asset retirement and 50% uncertain tax; no additional operating-lease debt subtraction. $60m deposit reserve approximates Japan encumbrances. Available revolver is 0/50/100/100% of $400m commitment, subject to covenants, expiring FY31 with no assumed renewal. No refinancing or equity funding assumed; negative cash is an explicit zero-common-recovery stress, not default probability. Principal paid affects liquidity, not FCFF a second time.
Valuation and scenario priors
Dilikoglu Research estimate · COHR-consistent priors 10/25/45/20%, WACC 13/11.5/10/9%, terminal growth 1/2/2.5/3%, ROIC 8/10/13/16%, exit recurring EBIT 8/12/20/25x. Five forecast years plus five transition years. Exit EV/EBIT is primary; perpetuity FCFF is an unblended cross-check. Company-specific margins are not borrowed from COHR.
Simulation and evidence
Dilikoglu Research estimate · 20,000 reproducible draws jointly stress demand, capacity, mix/pricing, margin, capital, cash conversion, credit, valuation multiple, awards and hedge recovery. Simulated shares solve conversion and option premium dynamically. These probabilities are judgment, not empirical confidence intervals.
Company Filings
Company Materials
Financing / Counterparty Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Industry / Market Data
