Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Historical financial anchors and debt
Reported · FY27 Q2 statements and notes, in USD bn. Revenue uses recast market-platform presentation. Debt principal reconciles to carrying value plus unamortized issuance costs. No equity investment gains in EBIT.
Near-term outlook
Management guidance-commentary · Q3 revenue, gross margin and GAAP opex; full-year tax range. Base begins at the guidance midpoint; all Q4 and subsequent annual extrapolation is DR estimation.
Operating scenarios
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Q3 product mix held at reported Q2 proportions. FY28–FY32 group growth fades linearly between stated endpoints. Gross margin and operating expenses are forecast separately, then transition to mature returns through FY36. Failure is a severe demand and counterparty shock, not an asserted default probability. Base Q4 GAAP opex is 8% above Q3 guidance; later opex growth and margin paths are DR estimates. Reported FY27 non-GAAP measures include SBC; the model retains future SBC as an expense. FY28 growth inputs refer to the annualized H2 FY27 run rate, not full-year FY27; both rates are disclosed in forecast exports.
Cash and capital requirements
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Opening working capital starts from reported receivables, inventory, payables, prepaid assets, specified accruals and deferred revenue. Residual other assets exclude locked equities and derivative assets, then use an 80% operating fraction; other accruals use 80%. Opening derived asset/liability ratios anchor forecast balances. Deferred revenue additions and release reconcile separately; only the change in its liability enters FCFF. Supply commitments set procurement floors, with impairment on excess inventory. Physical assets use five-year lives; reported finite amortization is separate. Opening physical depreciation is anchored to reported Q2 D&A less amortization, annualized, and capped by opening PPE. New assets use five-year lives. Procurement consumption excludes estimated noncash COGS; 20% of physical depreciation is allocated to COGS, SBC in COGS uses its reported Q2 revenue ratio, and component purchases represent 90% of cash COGS. These cost allocations are DR estimates, with 80–100% component-share sensitivities.
Security claims and strategic exposure
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Cash and debt securities less principal debt and an operating reserve; separate recovery/tax haircuts for equity investments. Scheduled future equity purchases incur a loss haircut; cash funding includes their full cost. Guarantees are stressed at scenario-specific loss fractions, paid at year 3.5. Existing award shares included once; future SBC stays expensed. Locked public equities are included with the public recovery haircut. Opening current tax and license payables are deducted as separate claims and paid in H2; uncertain-tax settlement fractions are DR estimates. Remaining SBC includes ESPP; 90% is allocated to existing share awards, with 10% retained as an economic expense.
Discount rate and terminal value
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Primary FCFF DCF discounted to the last balance-sheet date. FY36 operating earnings support a separate exit EV/EBIT cross-check, never blended. No output targets or automatic multiple matching to the market.
Simulation
Dilikoglu Research estimate · 20,000 reproducible draws from scenario priors. Shared demand and execution shocks affect growth, margins, working capital, investments and partner losses; discount rates co-move inversely. Dispersion is judgment, not statistical confidence.
September repurchase authorization
Management guidance-commentary · Reported board authorization $235bn remaining, including $150bn increase. Execution through FY28 is management expectation; average execution price, timing and post-July actual shares remain unknown. Cash-funded sensitivity only; no free buyback accretion.
Company Filings
Company Materials
- FY2027 Q2 results and Q3 outlook · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-26
Reported financial anchors, management outlook and risk disclosures. Forward scenario values are DR estimates.
- FY2027 Q2 earnings call transcript · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-26
Reported financial anchors, management outlook and risk disclosures. Forward scenario values are DR estimates.
Financing / Counterparty Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Industry / Market Data
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
