Model Preview / Research in Progress · Contract-backed AI infrastructure landlord
Overview
DILIKOGLU RESEARCH VIEW · MODEL 2026-09-13
Investment summary
Model Preview / Research in Progress · Model-based fair values; no formal recommendation or published price target.
TeraWulf’s signed infrastructure leases underpin its asset value. Construction execution and financing must translate that value into common-share returns after warrants, converts, compensation and remaining capital commitments.
Current model Base fair value / share
$17.48
Current model probability-weighted fair value / share
$15.89
Key catalyst
Justified project financing terms, followed by Lake Mariner CB4/CB5 delivery
Principal risk
Construction and financing delays can postpone lease cash flow.
USD per share. Valuations are DR model estimates, separate from dated report targets. Scenario probabilities and supporting assumptions appear below.
Contracted project NAV + Justified financing risk + risked powered-land pipeline versus spot
Signed AI-infrastructure leases support asset-level value independently of the remaining Bitcoin-mining bridge.
Future development value depends on site-specific readiness and financing, rather than a single haircut applied to all power.
Google warrants, converts, existing awards and future funding determine how much asset value belongs to common shareholders.
Variant perception
Large asset-level development spreads do not pass through one-for-one to each common share. The underwriting separates project cash from HoldCo cash and recognizes the substantial dilution and compensation burden.
What could make us wrong
Justified becomes materially parent-recourse/equity-heavy, Lake Mariner delivery slips >2 quarters, or stabilized AI-infrastructure cap rates sustain >8.5%
Key catalysts
Justified project financing terms, followed by Lake Mariner CB4/CB5 delivery
Scenario conclusions are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Company evidence, management guidance and analyst assumptions are distinguished in the analytical model.
Scenario Valuation
Scenario
Probability
Fair value / share
Return vs price
Failure
10%
$0.27
—
Bear
25%
$5.94
—
Base
45%
$17.48
—
Bull
20%
$32.55
—
Probability-weighted fair value: $15.89
Project NAV + risked powered-land option
Monte Carlo median: $14.91. Distributional cross-check, separate from the scenario valuation.
Scenario-mixture sensitivity simulation using the same equity-claims solver. Cloud models vary operating and funding inputs; landlord models vary aggregate recovered NAV components, not individual lease cash flows. No target calibration.
Scenario contributions and downside sensitivity
Derived from the current model above. These are scenario-weighted estimates, not calibrated probabilities of future returns.
Scenario
Weight
Fair value
Contribution to PW
Failure
10%
$0.27
$0.03
Bear
25%
$5.94
$1.49
Base
45%
$17.48
$7.86
Bull
20%
$32.55
$6.51
Bull contributes 41.0% of PW. Material upside-tail dependence: the weighted value should not be read as a typical outcome.
Excluding Bull and renormalizing the other weights to 100%: $11.72. Formula: sum of non-Bull weighted values ÷ (1 − Bull weight). This is a conditional diagnostic, not a replacement target.
Company-specific numerical probability calibration is not established. See the operating scenarios and falsifiers in the full analytical model.
Model
Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; published valuation outputs reflect the published research baseline.
Model Preview / Research in Progress. No initiation report or formal recommendation has been published.
Revision history
This register begins with the documented baseline below. It is not a complete historical track record. Snapshot values remain fixed; the investment summary reflects the current published model.
· Baseline recorded
Published model baseline documented
What changed: Added a concise investment summary and began the public revision register. No valuation assumptions or model economics changed in this update.
Why: Provide a dated starting point for tracking future research and valuation changes.
Valuation impact: No change from this documentation update. Earlier model revisions have not been reconstructed.
Recorded Base fair value
$17.48
Recorded PW fair value
$15.89
Model date 2026-09-13 · USD per share · DR estimatesModel provenance
Model SHA-256: cd25d1c686417bbae3916fa1d4a1cf854559abd1d42a4169e60f335dc4c6a934
This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Reconstructed research baseline. Forecasts, NAV estimates and missing-input derivations are Dilikoglu Research estimates; rounded source inputs limit precision. Security terms are recovered from the research record, not freshly verified filings.
Sign up through Beehiiv and confirm your email address to join. Beehiiv manages your subscription and unsubscribe options. Questions? research@dilikogluresearch.com.
