CoreWeave — Initiation of Coverage
Published · Dilikoglu Research
- Company / ticker
- CoreWeave / CRWV
- Recommendation
- BUY · High risk
- Price target
- $125 USD · 12–18 months
- Reference price
- $87.60
- Reference date
- 2026-09-25
- Implied upside to target
- 42.7%
Base DCF $124.04 rounded to $125. PW $151.60 and ARR cross-check $168.56 are separate measures. The 50% future-sales allocation is a DR estimate. Dated reference, not a live quote.
Executive summary
Replacement-aware CoreWeave underwriting with a $125 Base-case target and 42.7% upside to the dated $87.60 reference. Announced deals retain economics; 50% of 2027 additions is estimated future uncontracted business. The simulation remains highly skewed.
Key investment thesis
- Base 2027 exit ARR is $46.43bn; annual revenue is $32.715bn.
- Half of additions uses shared future-sales pricing; the rest retains prior economics.
- Replacement, financial debt, unpaid project capital and dilution are explicit equity claims.
Target and rating methodology
Report-specific Base target convention: above +15% BUY, below -15% SELL, otherwise HOLD over 12–18 months against the frozen reference. High risk; model frequencies are not calibrated outcome probabilities.
Scenario valuation at publication
Model effective 2026-09-26. Frozen publication snapshot; USD per share. Subsequent model updates appear on the Coverage page.
| Scenario | Probability | Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Failure | 10% | $0.00 |
| Bear | 30% | $0.00 |
| Base | 45% | $124.04 |
| Bull | 15% | $638.58 |
Probability-weighted fair value: $151.60. This is separate from the report target.
Key operating assumptions
- 2027 additions / pricing
- 1,400 MW; 50% estimated future sales at $25m/MW, remaining half at retained $15m/MW.
- 2027 revenue / EBITDA margin
- $32.715bn / 60%; DR estimates.
- Equipment economics
- Seven-year replacement; 90% renewal retention; 12% WACC.
- Funding
- Cash capex $38.6bn; $20bn net new debt; zero residual common equity in Base. Future financing is not committed.
Primary catalysts
- Delivery of contracted capacity into billable revenue.
- Comparable-duration future sales validating pricing and margins.
- Repeat asset-backed financing and successful equipment renewals.
Principal risks and thesis breakers
- The 50% future-sales share is an estimate; contract MW and delivery schedules are incompletely disclosed.
- Replacement costs, renewal prices and financing terms can materially reduce equity value.
- The simulation is highly skewed: median $61.56 and 55.21% below the frozen reference.
Re-underwrite if the future-sales allocation, $25m/MW future sales, seven-year life, renewal retention or funding assumptions fail.
Current evidence review and open items →Report-specific conflicts disclosure
Tugay Dilikoğlu confirmed no CRWV interest and no compensation from any party for this research.