AI INFRASTRUCTURE · CRWV

CoreWeave stock research & valuation

Published Coverage · GPU cloud / neocloud

Overview

DILIKOGLU RESEARCH VIEW · MODEL 2026-09-26

Investment summary

BUY · High risk · Target $125 USD · 12–18 months · Report 2026-09-26
Reference $87.60 (2026-09-25); implied upside 42.7%. Dated reference, not a current quote. Read recommendation →

Frozen publication snapshot: Base DCF $124.04 rounded to $125. PW $151.60 and ARR cross-check $168.56 are separate measures. The 50% future-sales allocation is a DR estimate.

Report-specific Base target convention: above +15% BUY, below -15% SELL, otherwise HOLD over 12–18 months against the frozen reference. High risk; model frequencies are not calibrated outcome probabilities.

Read the BUY alongside the downside distribution

The published BUY follows the Base target relative to the dated reference, supported by contracted demand and the modeled cash-flow ramp. Failure and Bear together receive 40% scenario weight and both yield zero common equity in this model; that is not an empirically estimated default probability. The much lower simulation median and large Bull contribution show that favorable outcomes drive the weighted value. Funding, replacement life and renewals must support the Base investment case.

CoreWeave’s contracted demand supports a substantial growth opportunity. The investment case depends on converting backlog into cash while carrying debt, leases and refinancing needs that reduce the value available to common shareholders.

Current model Base fair value / share: $124.04
Current model probability-weighted fair value / share: $151.60
Key catalyst: 2027 power delivery plus customer-backed financing
Principal risk: Customer concentration creates counterparty and renewal exposure.

USD per share. Valuations are DR model estimates, separate from dated report targets. Scenario probabilities and supporting assumptions appear below.

Valuation & scenarios →Revision history →Supporting sources →

Latest available price: Unavailable
Base return vs latest price: —

Evidence review →

Primary operating KPI: ARR / active MW
Last recorded model update: 2026-09-26

Explore the analytical model → · Portfolio Analytics →

Investment Thesis

Backlog conversion versus balance-sheet reflexivity

Backlog provides demand evidence, while delivery timing determines how much becomes recognized revenue and operating cash.
GPU-cloud scale must be assessed against debt, leases and fixed commitments rather than revenue growth alone.
Project financing and refinancing capacity determine how much enterprise value reaches common equity.

Variant perception

Replacement-aware DCF is primary; EV/ARR is a cross-check. Half of 2027 additions is estimated future uncontracted business. Announced deals are unchanged; missing contract MW and delivery schedules remain limitations.

What could make us wrong

Active capacity misses the Bear case, customer commitments weaken, or residual equity requires distressed issuance.

Key catalysts

2027 power delivery plus customer-backed financing

Scenario conclusions are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Company evidence, management guidance and analyst assumptions are distinguished in the analytical model.

Scenario Valuation

Scenario	Probability	Fair value / share	Return vs price
Failure	10%	$0.00	—
Bear	30%	$0.00	—
Base	45%	$124.04	—
Bull	15%	$638.58	—

Probability-weighted fair value: $151.60

Replacement-aware DCF; EV/ARR cross-check

Monte Carlo median: $61.56. Distributional cross-check, separate from the scenario valuation.

Correlated scenario mixture: execution drives MW/margins; market-pricing correlation .55, credit .50, cost -.35. Only future uncontracted sales pricing is shocked; retained contract/unknown-cohort price and later-growth productivity are fixed. Independent discrete life shock. Every draw recalculates capex, residual funding, replacement cash flow, tax, debt and security claims. Widths are DR judgments; no calibration to market price.

Key Base-case drivers · model 2026-09-26

These selected forecast inputs are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Units are shown explicitly; debt funding is not a lender commitment. Reported anchors and management guidance are distinguished in the full model source register.

Input	Base estimate	Units
New capacity	1400.00	MW
New-cohort ARR / MW	20.00	USD m
System capital / MW	32.00	USD m
New debt funding	20.00	USD bn
EBITDA margin	60.00	%
Technology cash-replacement life	7.00	years
WACC	12.00	%
Assumed common issue price	78.84	USD / share
Future ungranted SBC reserve	1.05	USD bn

Scenario contributions and downside sensitivity

Derived from the current model above. These are scenario-weighted estimates, not calibrated probabilities of future returns.

Scenario	Weight	Fair value	Contribution to PW
Failure	10%	$0.00	$0.00
Bear	30%	$0.00	$0.00
Base	45%	$124.04	$55.82
Bull	15%	$638.58	$95.79

Bull contributes 63.2% of PW. Material upside-tail dependence: the weighted value should not be read as a typical outcome.

Excluding Bull and renormalizing the other weights to 100%: $65.67. Formula: sum of non-Bull weighted values ÷ (1 − Bull weight). This is a conditional diagnostic, not a replacement target.

Scenario mechanisms and weight limitations

The weights are analyst priors. The mechanisms below explain what each case represents; they do not statistically establish the numerical probability. Similar weights across companies should not be interpreted as equal default risk.

Failure · 10%: Poor execution and financing pressure exhaust common-equity value after capital claims. Zero is the model residual, not a forecast of legal liquidation recovery.

Bear · 30%: Lower productivity and weaker financing leave no modeled equity residual despite continuing operations. This contributes to the large downside mass.

Base · 45%: Future sales, seven-year technology replacement and renewal retention support positive equity after debt and dilution; each remains conditional.

Bull · 15%: Strong deployment, pricing and financing plus longer replacement life create a large right tail. This carries most of PW and is not the most likely outcome.

Weight changes require an evidence-based review of contract coverage, delivery, financing and balance-sheet capacity. No weights have been adjusted to match the market price.

Valuation robustness review · 14 October 2026

Uniform technology cash-replacement life across all scenarios; scenario weights and signed pricing held fixed. Four years is a downside diagnostic, not an accounting-policy change. The annual model assumes replacement restores revenue immediately, with no downtime or salvage proceeds. Early retirement retains the existing tax approximation; unrecovered tax basis is not credited as an additional write-off. Not a covenant or liquidity-default forecast.

Published mixed-life baseline: Base $124.04; PW $151.60. The stresses below apply one life to every scenario, rather than changing its probability.

Technology replacement life	Base fair value	PW fair value
4 years	$0.00	$45.05
5 years	$13.52	$72.35
6 years	$84.34	$118.88
7 years	$124.04	$145.44

Model

Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; published valuation outputs reflect the published research baseline.

Open full analytical model →

Explore the interactive model here

Research

CRWV · Initiation of Coverage

CoreWeave — Initiation of Coverage

2026-09-26

BUY · High risk · Target $125 USD · 12–18 months

Replacement-aware CoreWeave underwriting with a $125 Base-case target and 42.7% upside to the dated $87.60 reference. Announced deals retain economics; 50% of 2027 additions is estimated future uncontracted business. The simulation remains highly skewed.

Read Research →Download PDF View Coverage →

Revision history

This register begins with the documented baseline below. It is not a complete historical track record. Snapshot values remain fixed; the investment summary reflects the current published model.

2026-09-26 · Report publication

CoreWeave initiation report and model published

Read the dated research update →

What changed: Published replacement-aware DCF underwriting with a disclosed 50% future-uncontracted allocation, unchanged announced deal economics and updated security claims.

Why: Align the report, dashboard, portfolio inputs and reproducible valuation with the reviewed underwriting.

Valuation impact: BUY · High risk; $125 target. Base $124.04; PW $151.60. ARR cross-check $168.56 is separate.

Recorded Base fair value: $124.04
Recorded PW fair value: $151.60

Model date 2026-09-26 · USD per share · DR estimates

Change from recorded 2026-09-13 entry: Base +4.66; PW +48.80 USD per share. These are differences between recorded endpoints, not isolated causal contributions.

The change description identifies the combined underwriting revision. A reproducible dollar-per-share attribution among interacting operating, financing and valuation drivers has not been reconstructed; the endpoint difference is not presented as a causal driver walk.

Model provenance

Model SHA-256: 39203b2defaedf0aa5135333bcefc3eb55f486b4a89386b577db44bc01c346ea

This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.

View current model · Review source disclosures

2026-09-13 · Baseline recorded

Published model baseline documented

What changed: Added a concise investment summary and began the public revision register. No valuation assumptions or model economics changed in this update.

Why: Provide a dated starting point for tracking future research and valuation changes.

Valuation impact: No change from this documentation update. Earlier model revisions have not been reconstructed.

Recorded Base fair value: $119.38
Recorded PW fair value: $102.81

Model date 2026-09-13 · USD per share · DR estimates

Model provenance

Model SHA-256: b0bbf8623950f7f5dceb948b85ec77584ba7a959889b10a98cd20aa7176397c4

This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.

View current model · Review source disclosures

Sources

Key Evidence

Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.

Evidence review ·

Q2 2026 Form 10-Q · Primary company disclosure
Q2 2026 results / backlog / power · Primary company disclosure
Q3/FY26 outlook · Primary company disclosure
September convertible closing · Primary company disclosure
September pricing update · Primary company disclosure
DDTL 4.0 financing · Primary company disclosure
DDTL 5.0 financing · Primary company disclosure
DDTL 5.5 financing · Primary company disclosure

Full Evidence Register

The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.

Replacement-aware DCF; ARR cross-check. The 50% future uncontracted share, remaining-cohort pricing, asset lives and future financing are DR estimates, not disclosed contract terms.

Separate platform ARR

Dilikoglu Research estimate · 0

Embedded in cohort revenue; remove unverified increment.

2027 future uncontracted share

Dilikoglu Research estimate · 0.5

DR estimate approved September 26; not disclosed contracted coverage. Base 700 MW at 25m plus 700 MW retained at 15m yields 20m blended. Announced deal economics are unchanged; no named-contract volume is invented.

Post-2027 growth ARR/MW

Dilikoglu Research estimate · [10,12,15,20]

Separate retained long-run productivity estimates; 2027 repricing does not silently alter later investment economics.

Base mature consolidated EBITDA margin

Dilikoglu Research estimate · 0.67

Below company illustrative 75% stabilized contract EBITDA, allowing corporate/ramp costs; not guidance.

Base technology economic life / renewal retention

Dilikoglu Research estimate · [7,0.9]

One year beyond six-year accounting life; two renewal years after five-year initial contract; 10% renewal haircut. Evidence supports testing longevity, not certifying it.

WACC / terminal growth

Dilikoglu Research estimate · [0.12,0.025]

DR risk-adjusted discount rate and nominal steady-state growth; WACC tested at 10-14%, not fitted to quote.

Future SBC

Dilikoglu Research estimate · 0.03

Recurring economic cost as share of revenue after 2027, with operating scale; no cash-only EBITDA claim.

H2 CFO

Dilikoglu Research estimate · 4.3882

(12.8 FY26 revenue midpoint − 4.653 H1 actual) × 60% − 1.95 interest − .05 tax + 2 deferred revenue − .5 other working capital.

H2 cash capex

Dilikoglu Research estimate · 21

DR payment estimate near 20.8 in-service additions; cash versus commissioning and vendor-payment timing are not reported forecasts.

Unpaid project capital

Dilikoglu Research estimate · 11.2

Base 44.8 × 25%; assumed outside financial debt, deducted at YE27 face once. Payment shown separately in 2028 liquidity.

June technology vintage proxy

Dilikoglu Research estimate · 0.4

40% of Dec25 technology assigned to 2024; rest to 2025; H1 increase and H2 additions assigned to 2026. Asset-age register not public.

Company Filings

Q2 2026 Form 10-Q · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-12
Q2 2026 Form 10-Q

Company Materials

Q2 2026 results / backlog / power · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-11
Q2 2026 results / backlog / power
Q3/FY26 outlook · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-11
Q3/FY26 outlook
September convertible closing · Primary company disclosure · 2026-09-17
2033 note principal, conversion rate and capped-call ceiling
September pricing update · Primary company disclosure · 2026-09-17
Short-term pricing; not a fleet-wide multiyear assumption

Financing / Counterparty Sources

DDTL 4.0 financing · Primary company disclosure · 2026-03-31
DDTL 4.0 financing
DDTL 5.0 financing · Primary company disclosure · 2026-05-18
DDTL 5.0 financing
DDTL 5.5 financing · Primary company disclosure · 2026-08-10
DDTL 5.5 financing
2032 convert · Primary company disclosure · 2026-04-14
2032 convert
2031 convert · Primary company disclosure · 2025-12-11
2031 convert

Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources

See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.

Industry / Market Data

See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.

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