INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH · CRWV
CRWV — Investment dashboard
Scenario valuation, operating assumptions, funding and investment risk.
Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; headline values reflect the published baseline.
Core modeling rule: IREN retains its frozen new-cohort AI-cloud pricing curve. NBIS has a separately re-underwritten cohort curve. Owned / secured power changes delivery probability, financing capacity and residual infrastructure value, not ARR/MW by itself. Common equity remains the residual funding source.
Reported information, management guidance and Dilikoglu Research estimates are distinguished in Catalysts & Sources. Priors are shown in Failure / Bear / Base / Bull order.
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Company model
Replacement-aware DCF; EV/ARR cross-check
Equity value bridge
Convertible principal stays in debt; only the unhedged premium dilutes shares. Granted awards and future ungranted SBC reserves are separate claims.
Scenario inputs & funding
Explore assumptions
Diagnostic changes run the same equity solver and leave published headline cards unchanged.
Reproducible simulation
Input classification
Operating forecasts, project NAV, future financing, scenario probabilities and valuation assumptions are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Security terms were reviewed against primary filings on September 26, 2026; post-June award movements remain an estimate. 50% of 2027 additions is modeled as future uncontracted business, a Dilikoglu Research estimate rather than disclosed contracted coverage. The remaining half retains prior pricing; announced deals are not repriced. Post-2027 growth pricing is a separate retained estimate. NAV incorporates completion costs and project debt where specified; do not deduct them again.
Derived estimates
DCF methodology
The Base target follows replacement-aware cash flow, with ARR valuation as a separate cross-check. Seven-year equipment life, 90% renewal retention, 12% WACC and later-year growth productivity are analyst estimates. Unpaid project capital is deducted once, separately from financial net debt. Failure and Bear reach the zero-equity floor; Bull dominates the upper tail.
Primary sources
- September 2033 convertible closing - Reported security terms
- Q2 2026 results / backlog / power — Primary company disclosure
- Q2 2026 Form 10-Q — Primary company disclosure
- Q3/FY26 outlook — Primary company disclosure
- DDTL 4.0 financing — Primary company disclosure
- DDTL 5.0 financing — Primary company disclosure
- DDTL 5.5 financing — Primary company disclosure
- 2032 convert — Primary company disclosure
- 2031 convert — Primary company disclosure