INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH · IREN
IREN — Investment dashboard
Scenario valuation, operating assumptions, funding and investment risk.
Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; headline values reflect the published baseline.
Core modeling rule: IREN retains its frozen new-cohort AI-cloud pricing curve. NBIS has a separately re-underwritten cohort curve. Owned / secured power changes delivery probability, financing capacity and residual infrastructure value, not ARR/MW by itself. Common equity remains the residual funding source.
Reported information, management guidance and Dilikoglu Research estimates are distinguished in Catalysts & Sources. Priors are shown in Failure / Bear / Base / Bull order.
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Company model
EV/ARR + residual power value
Equity value bridge
Convertible principal stays in debt; only the unhedged premium dilutes shares. Granted awards and future ungranted SBC reserves are separate claims.
Scenario inputs & funding
Explore assumptions
Diagnostic changes run the same equity solver and leave published headline cards unchanged.
Reproducible simulation
Input classification
Operating forecasts, project NAV, future financing, scenario probabilities and valuation assumptions are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Selected share and note inputs were rechecked against the FY26 Form 10-K on September 24, 2026. The award bridge and detailed settlement eligibility retain limitations; see the current evidence review. NAV incorporates completion costs and project debt where specified; do not deduct them again.
Derived estimates
Primary sources
- FY26 Results / Business Update — Primary company disclosure
- FY26 Form 10-K — Primary company disclosure
- IREN Microsoft contract terms — Primary company disclosure
- IREN 2026-2028 operating / financing update — Primary company disclosure
- IREN selective contracting update — Primary company disclosure