Frozen publication snapshot: Probability-weighted intrinsic value of $98.91, rounded to $100. The report uses the scenario-weighted outcome to reflect execution and financing risk.
Report-specific analyst judgment over 12–18 months against the frozen report reference. No universal numeric BUY/HOLD/SELL thresholds were documented in the finalized research; model upside alone does not assign a recommendation.
IREN’s opportunity is to turn owned power and data-center infrastructure into profitable AI-cloud capacity. Per-share value depends on contract economics, timely deployment and project funding that limits common-equity dilution.
Current model Base fair value / share
$111.17
Current model probability-weighted fair value / share
$98.87
Key catalyst
Signed 2027 AI-cloud contracts and Sweetwater delivery
Principal risk
Contract conversion and commissioning may lag the deployment schedule.
USD per share. Valuations are DR model estimates, separate from dated report targets. Scenario probabilities and supporting assumptions appear below.
Security review 25 September 2026: disclosed award components and note terms checked. Gross award claims now use a traceable DR estimate; post-June movements and future hedge realization remain explicit limitations. Evidence review →
2027 deployment + monetization versus market-implied scale
Owned power and data-center infrastructure can support financing capacity and residual value beyond the GPU fleet.
New-cohort AI-cloud pricing must be supported by customer economics; secured power alone does not justify a higher ARR/MW assumption.
Customer prepayments and project financing can reduce residual common-equity needs, provided commissioning and cash timing align.
Variant perception
The underwriting separates the value of delivered AI-cloud economics from owned infrastructure and secured-power optionality. Capacity that has not become a financeable project does not earn the same treatment as operating capacity.
What could make us wrong
Risked MW misses plan or new-cohort ARR/MW falls below Bear range
Key catalysts
Signed 2027 AI-cloud contracts and Sweetwater delivery
Scenario conclusions are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Company evidence, management guidance and analyst assumptions are distinguished in the analytical model.
Scenario Valuation
Scenario
Probability
Fair value / share
Return vs price
Failure
10%
$6.08
—
Bear
25%
$43.01
—
Base
45%
$111.17
—
Bull
20%
$187.38
—
Probability-weighted fair value: $98.87
EV/ARR + residual power value
Monte Carlo median: $95.41. Distributional cross-check, separate from the scenario valuation.
Scenario-mixture sensitivity simulation using the same equity-claims solver. Cloud models vary operating and funding inputs; landlord models vary aggregate recovered NAV components, not individual lease cash flows. No target calibration.
Key Base-case drivers · model 2026-09-25
These selected forecast inputs are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Units are shown explicitly; debt funding is not a lender commitment. Reported anchors and management guidance are distinguished in the full model source register.
Input
Base estimate
Units
Exit ARR
16.50
USD bn
Assumed common issue price
45.00
USD / share
Future ungranted SBC reserve
1.70
USD bn
Cloud EV / ARR
3.50
times
Scenario contributions and downside sensitivity
Derived from the current model above. These are scenario-weighted estimates, not calibrated probabilities of future returns.
Scenario
Weight
Fair value
Contribution to PW
Failure
10%
$6.08
$0.61
Bear
25%
$43.01
$10.75
Base
45%
$111.17
$50.03
Bull
20%
$187.38
$37.48
Bull contributes 37.9% of PW.
Excluding Bull and renormalizing the other weights to 100%: $76.74. Formula: sum of non-Bull weighted values ÷ (1 − Bull weight). This is a conditional diagnostic, not a replacement target.
Scenario mechanisms and weight limitations
The weights are analyst priors. The mechanisms below explain what each case represents; they do not statistically establish the numerical probability. Similar weights across companies should not be interpreted as equal default risk.
Bear · 25%: Delivery or pricing disappoints and external funding dilutes the value reaching existing shareholders.
Base · 45%: New-cohort commercialization and the modeled financing mix deliver the central operating plan.
Bull · 20%: Faster delivery and stronger operating economics raise cloud and residual infrastructure value; this is an upside assumption, not guidance.
Weight changes require an evidence-based review of contract coverage, delivery, financing and balance-sheet capacity. No weights have been adjusted to match the market price.
Replacement-life limitation: the primary ARR-multiple valuation does not explicitly model successive GPU replacement cycles. A four-year versus six-year per-share cash-flow cross-check requires a reconciled technology asset basis, commissioning vintages, renewal revenue and replacement financing. It is not available from the existing multiple model and is not approximated by an arbitrary multiple haircut.
Model
Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; published valuation outputs reflect the published research baseline.
Base intrinsic value $111.22, probability-weighted value $98.91 and Monte Carlo median $95.46 support a rounded $100 target. The report presents owned-infrastructure economics, strategic funding, compensation and dilution, with explicit scenario and source limitations.
Restored the original report reference: $43.83, the September 11, 2026 closing price. The September 13 edition had substituted the model’s unverified $44.67 reference. Implied upside to the unchanged $100 target is 128.2%. Rating, valuation assumptions and scenario values are unchanged.
This register begins with the documented baseline below. It is not a complete historical track record. Snapshot values remain fixed; the investment summary reflects the current published model.
· Security-input review
Granted award estimate reconciled to disclosed components
What changed: Replaced the unsupported 38.646m net award figure with the 38.914382m gross disclosed-components estimate; added settlement limitations and a no-hedge sensitivity.
Why: Do not assume unverified post-June forfeitures or settlement adjustments.
Valuation impact: Current model Base $111.17; PW $98.87. Published report snapshot and $100 target retained.
Recorded Base fair value
$111.17
Recorded PW fair value
$98.87
Model date 2026-09-25 · USD per share · DR estimates
Change from recorded 2026-09-13 entry: Base -0.05; PW -0.04 USD per share. These are differences between recorded endpoints, not isolated causal contributions.
Model provenance
Model SHA-256: 0434caab234cb04d64c17a3f1c07eef4843881e6b930e0938e32511c042cc67f
This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.
What changed: Published the current report with Base $111.22, PW $98.91 and a $95.46 Monte Carlo median.
Why: Present the production model and capital-claims framework in the research report.
Valuation impact: Current rounded target: $100. No model economics changed in this publication update.
Recorded Base fair value
$111.22
Recorded PW fair value
$98.91
Model date 2026-09-13 · USD per share · DR estimates
Change from recorded 2026-09-13 entry: Base +0.00; PW +0.00 USD per share. These are differences between recorded endpoints, not isolated causal contributions.
Model provenance
Model SHA-256: b9cbe2732b165d665ed7ab847b3fbb0ded183ee2cec8d93d1bd867ee0a7f4357
This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.
What changed: Added a concise investment summary and began the public revision register. No valuation assumptions or model economics changed in this update.
Why: Provide a dated starting point for tracking future research and valuation changes.
Valuation impact: No change from this documentation update. Earlier model revisions have not been reconstructed.
Recorded Base fair value
$111.22
Recorded PW fair value
$98.91
Model date 2026-09-13 · USD per share · DR estimatesModel provenance
Model SHA-256: b9cbe2732b165d665ed7ab847b3fbb0ded183ee2cec8d93d1bd867ee0a7f4357
This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.
Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Evidence review 2026-09-25 · Security review 25 September 2026: disclosed award components and note terms checked. Gross award claims now use a traceable DR estimate; post-June movements and future hedge realization remain explicit limitations.
FY26 Form 10-K confirms 394.059m ordinary shares (August 14), 5.504m options at $66.03, six modeled note principal balances and conversion prices, capped-call strikes, and NVIDIA rights for up to 30m shares at $70 (Notes 17, 23–25). Primary source →
Notes 25 and 30 identify 14.989686m June service awards, 5.726040m performance awards and 18.198656m July CEO grants. Gross sum: 38.914382m. The July grants vest over four years; holding restrictions do not cancel the claim. Primary source →
Executive RSU form: shares are the usual settlement, subject to vesting and other conditions; regulatory cash settlement and tax withholding alternatives exist. This form is not proof of the terms of every individual award. Primary source →
These material limitations remain relevant to valuation; a published report does not resolve them.
Post-June award movements · Residual uncertainty
Status
Gross disclosed grant bridge reconciled; net outstanding claims remain estimated.
Why it matters
Share issuance and forfeitures can change the net economic award claim.
Model treatment
The model now uses 38.914382m gross economic award claims rather than the unsupported 38.646m net figure. No vesting discount is applied. Later exercises, forfeitures and acquisition-related grants remain unreconciled; this is not a verified September outstanding balance. Already-issued awards can overlap the August basic count; later grants can add claims.
Valuation impact
Award change alone: Base $111.2249 to $111.1738; PW $98.9094 to $98.8651. Rounded $100 report target unchanged.
Settlement timing and hedge realization · Material assumption
Status
Disclosed terms checked; future realization remains a DR assumption.
Why it matters
Reduced hedge protection raises the common-share claim even when headline note terms are correct.
Model treatment
Principal, conversion prices and hedge strikes agree with the filing. Cash/share settlement is elected by the issuer. The model retains principal in debt and charges only premium net of assumed matching hedge payoff; it does not establish legal conversion eligibility. Exact hedge coverage following early unwind, counterparty performance and post-June transactions remain subject to review.
Valuation impact
No capped-call protection stress: Base $105.39. This is a sensitivity, not a forecast of hedge failure.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Security inputs reviewed against FY26 filings on 25 September 2026. Operating and funding scenarios remain the 13 September underwriting. Gross award claims and future settlement/hedge realization are Dilikoglu Research estimates; post-June award movements remain unverified.
Full gross economic claims are included without a vesting discount; this is not a forecast of shares issued by YE27. July CEO awards vest annually over four years and have a two-year post-vesting holding requirement. Holding restrictions do not extinguish the economic claim. The executive award form generally settles vested awards in shares, with conditional cash settlement and tax-withholding alternatives; individual award terms may differ. Post-June movements and acquisition-related awards remain unreconciled; no unsupported net reduction is assumed.
Convert settlement and capped-call realization
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Principal retained in debt; premium above conversion price less matching capped-call payoff, expressed as equivalent shares.
Cash, shares or mixed settlement is an issuer election. Future economic participation is not a claim of legal conversion eligibility. The zero-hedge sensitivity removes all capped-call protection without removing note principal.
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