INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH · CIFR
CIFR — Investment dashboard
Scenario valuation, operating assumptions, funding and investment risk.
Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; headline values reflect the published baseline.
Core modeling rule: CIFR earns lease NOI as an infrastructure landlord. Valuation blends two stabilized-NOI capitalization cases equally, with signed leases separate from probability-weighted development. Construction, taxes, debt and dilution are reconciled once. Appraisal gains are not funding cash.
Reported information, management guidance and Dilikoglu Research estimates are distinguished in Catalysts & Sources. Priors are shown in Failure / Bear / Base / Bull order.
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Company model
Blended stabilized-NOI SOTP; DCF cross-check
Equity value bridge
Convertible principal stays in debt; only the unhedged premium dilutes shares. Granted awards and future ungranted SBC reserves are separate claims.
Scenario inputs & funding
Download Base quarterly forecastExplore assumptions
Diagnostic changes run the same equity solver and leave published headline cards unchanged.
Reproducible simulation
Sources & scenario governance
Reported balances and agreements, management forward commentary, and Dilikoglu Research estimates are distinguished below. CIFR is a landlord: lease NOI, construction cost and financing drive equity value.
Evidence to monitor
- Barber Lake hall acceptance and rent commencement in Q4 2026–Q1 2027; larger overruns or further delays challenge Base.
- Remaining Black Pearl delivery and Stingray commissioning; verify cash NOI against contractual forecasts.
- Signed Reveille, Ulysses and Odessa leases with financeable budgets; pipeline capacity is not contracted revenue.
- Refinancing terms and lender distribution tests; indicative debt-service coverage below 1.2x challenges funding assumptions.
Hard falsifiers
Material tenant cancellation or default; repeated acceptance delays; new-project NOI below $1.3m/IT MW at capital costs above $12m/IT MW; unavailable refinancing; or common-equity issuance materially above the funding forecast. These are analyst monitoring thresholds, not company guidance.