Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Evidence review 2026-10-01 · October 1 review: site-level refinancing, Stingray NOI-based amortization proxy, annual tax ledgers and conditional pipeline milestones. Actual tax basis, future commitments and pipeline signing probabilities remain explicitly estimated.
June cash, restricted cash, note principal and carrying amounts; contractual award schedules and warrant floor. Primary source →
September Barber Lake amendment: revised phased delivery and separately contracted follow-on economics. Primary source →
Black Pearl and Stingray each disclose three five-year tenant extension options. These are distinguished from guaranteed base-term rent and are not double-counted above terminal sale value. Primary source →
Stingray indenture sets a 1.25x NOI-based amortization target; the engine uses a disclosed quarterly equivalent, not exact semiannual covenant testing. Primary source →
The 2025 tax note reports historical NOLs but says an ownership-change study has not been completed. Base grants no historical NOL benefit; usability is stress-tested. Primary source →
These material limitations remain relevant to valuation; a published report does not resolve them.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Blended stabilized-NOI SOTP. Scenario capitalization cases combine at property NAV before one equity-claims calculation. Base uses 5.5% contracted / 6.5% pipeline in both legs. Signed lease rents are unchanged. Cap rates, conversion probabilities, corporate cash-tax reserves and funding remain DR estimates, not observed transaction pricing. The contract DCF remains a cross-check.
Contract cash flows
Dilikoglu Research estimate · First-year rent = nominal term revenue / sum of annual 3% escalators. Phase shares distribute commencement; each hall receives its complete term.
Signed revenue is fixed. Barber blended margin is a DR estimate; AWS 100% NOI is guidance. Barber follow-on is separate from residual value.
Opening cash roll-forward
Dilikoglu Research estimate · June cash less $0.9bn Q3 project spend and $0.04bn corporate burn plus $0.01bn estimated NOI.
No post-June actual balance is represented. June restricted cash remains ring-fenced; $0.35bn held through completion plus two years.
Remaining construction
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Initial estimated budget $4.7535bn − reported CIP $1.676099bn + unpaid capital $0.542730bn − deposits $0.055998bn + capitalized interest $0.023203bn + estimated other-site CIP $0.05bn = $3.637336bn June cash cost to complete; less $0.9bn Q3 payments. Barber overruns are additional.
Budget uses $9.5m/IT MW for Barber and Black Pearl and $10.5m for Stingray. Barber initial budget, CIP scope and allocation (39/42.5/18.5%) are DR estimates. Adding accrued unpaid capital prevents treating accounting additions as cash already spent; finance interest remains in funding cash flow.
Barber reimbursement
Dilikoglu Research estimate · 50% × max(overrun − $0.3593bn,0) amortized as 20-year rent at estimated 8% return.
Full overrun paid up front; no instant cash reimbursement and no guarantee of the undisclosed contracted return.
Pipeline
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Named-site milestone scheduling with per-site delay/cancellation stresses. Existing stage probabilities are joint outcomes; do not multiply separate gate probabilities or treat forecast milestone dates as achieved facts.
No empirical signing probability or guaranteed construction date is available. Site financing is conditional on a modeled executed lease; generic four-quarter build duration remains an estimate.
Funding and valuation boundary
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Blended property appraisals less remaining construction; subtract one corporate tax reserve, overhead, SBC and existing principal. New borrowing is financing-neutral in NAV.
Quarterly contract-hold liquidity separately services interest, amortization and maturities. Common equity is raised at modeled cash-need dates; discounted proceeds and investor claims enter consistently. No appraised stabilization value is treated as a funding receipt; lease-end gains taxes are explicitly estimated.
Awards
Dilikoglu Research estimate · 10.571379m service RSUs + 2.8023105m estimated remaining 2025 earned PSUs + 2.179406m 2026 target × 0/0.5/1/2.25 + 0.132660m service-provider target × 0/0.5/1/2 + residual reserve.
2025 vesting schedule leaves half the original 5.604621m award at June30; vested shares are not added again. Maximum scenario reconciles to the 18.593624m anti-dilutive disclosure using a 0.050951m unexplained reserve; post-June vesting remains unverified.
Warrants and converts
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Google warrant shares=max(24.178576m,430m / separate settlement-price assumption). Note principal stays in debt; only net premium dilutes.
Price floor is measured at the contractual exercise-window reference, not intrinsic value. Full capped-call realization is an estimate; downside stress removes hedge protection.
Refinancing
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Each project supports only its own refinancing capacity; future corporate refinancing is limited to estimated residual portfolio capacity.
Future credit remains uncommitted. Site-level sizing prevents unrelated project NOI from directly supporting a facility. Releasing residual collateral for corporate borrowing requires lender consent and is a DR assumption, not a covenant certification. Quarter-equivalent payments omit contractual day counts and stub periods.
Colchis minority ownership
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Hold June disclosed 76% ownership constant; apply to both development capital and property cash flow.
The $25.679m redeemable NCI carrying amount is not deducted on top of proportionate project economics. Future capital contributions, dilution and redemption rights could change this allocation.
Issuance and warrant reference prices
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Future issuance prices are solved from intrinsic value, timing, equity return and issuance discount. Warrant-window reference remains $12/$16/$17.73/$24.
Legacy fixed issuePrice fields are inactive under timedFunding; warrant reference is a distinct contractual-window estimate, not intrinsic value.
Capitalization rates
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Base contracted cap rate 5.5%; pipeline 6.5%. Both capitalization legs coincide in Base; other scenarios retain their disclosed ranges.
User-approved Dilikoglu Research estimate. The June 2026 Digital Realty transaction disclosed over 6.5%, so 5.5% is a lower-yield valuation judgment, not a rate established by that comparable. Pipeline retains a 100bp premium. The wider 6%/7% and 7%/8% blend is retained as a sensitivity.
Lease-end disposal and taxes
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Next-year NOI capitalized at each valuation-case rate +100bp aging spread; blend gross proceeds; deduct 20/15/10/5% refurbishment and 2% selling cost, then 23% of positive gain over estimated remaining tax basis.
Same net proceeds and disposal taxes flow through the DCF, cash funding schedule and corporate SOTP tax reserve. Initial tax basis uses full construction budget; land 10%, equipment45%/15yr, structure45%/39yr. No speculative NOL offset or tax refund on losses. These are explicit estimates, not reported tax advice.
Timed common equity funding
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Quarterly net cash need / (1 − issuance fee); round price = solved IV × (1 + equity return)^time × (1 − issuance discount). Base fees 2%, issuance discount 10%, equity return 12%.
Future proceeds and investor claims are discounted consistently. Issuing at fair value creates no free value; fees and issuance discount reduce existing shareholders’ NAV. Nonpositive remaining NAV requires recapitalization, with zero common recovery assumed rather than a discontinuous rescue.
Explicit cash-tax schedules
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Annual operating taxable income, interest-capacity and NOL ledgers are pooled by calendar year; forecast annual operating cash tax is allocated evenly to modeled quarters for liquidity planning. The opening 2026 and closing 2051 periods are partial years. Separate unlevered and levered ledgers; 30% EBITDA-style ATI proxy, interest carryforward and 80% NOL offset limit. No historical NOL credit without a Section 382 study. Disposal gains separately taxed without NOL relief.
Not a tax return: combined 23% rate, asset basis, cost segregation, straight-line depreciation and quarterly payment allocation are estimates. No bonus depreciation assumed in Base. Annual opening/closing stub periods omit unmodeled quarters. No filing valuation allowance is treated as cash; no tax benefit on disposal losses.
Credit sizing
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Construction debt is sized per site by LTC and stabilized NOI debt-service capacity. Refinancing is sized on each site’s own current NOI, cap rate, DSCR and LTV, shared among its outstanding tranches. Corporate notes can use only residual modeled portfolio capacity after project debt; no automatic access to pledged project collateral is assumed.
Future credit remains uncommitted. Site-level sizing prevents unrelated project NOI from directly supporting a facility. Releasing residual collateral for corporate borrowing requires lender consent and is a DR assumption, not a covenant certification. Quarter-equivalent payments omit contractual day counts and stub periods.
Company Filings
Company Materials
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Financing / Counterparty Sources
Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Industry / Market Data
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
