AI INFRASTRUCTURE · NBIS

Nebius Group stock research & valuation

Published Coverage · Full-stack AI Cloud

Overview

DILIKOGLU RESEARCH VIEW · MODEL 2026-09-25

Investment summary

BUY · High risk · Target $265 USD · 12–18 months · Report 2026-09-20
Reference $223.54 (2026-09-18); implied upside 18.5%. Dated reference, not a current quote. Read recommendation →

Frozen publication snapshot: Base intrinsic value of $265.43, rounded to the nearest $5. This is a Base-case realization target, not an expected-return target. Probability-weighted value is $215.89, below the $223.54 report reference; BUY does not imply positive probability-weighted upside.

Report-specific analyst judgment over 12–18 months against the frozen report reference. No universal numeric BUY/HOLD/SELL thresholds were documented in the finalized research; model upside alone does not assign a recommendation.

Why the published BUY differs from the weighted downside measures

The published recommendation expresses a conditional Base-case realization thesis: contracted demand, commercialization and customer funding could support the $265 target. It does not establish positive probability-weighted upside to the publication reference. The lower PW and median indicate material execution and dilution risk; the rating should not be interpreted as the most likely return or a mechanically positive expected-return signal.

Nebius’s growth case depends on commissioning new commercial capacity at attractive contract pricing. Customer prepayments and secured financing must fund that expansion without overstating cash generation or understating dilution.

Current model Base fair value / share: $265.43
Current model probability-weighted fair value / share: $215.91
Key catalyst: >1,000MW annual deployment guidance; comparable new-contract economics
Principal risk: New-cohort pricing or deployment may fall below the underwriting bands.

USD per share. Valuations are DR model estimates, separate from dated report targets. Scenario probabilities and supporting assumptions appear below.

Valuation & scenarios →Revision history →Supporting sources →

Latest available price: Unavailable
Base return vs latest price: —

June award counts, private-investment carrying values, historical debt accounting and all eight contractual accretion schedules verified. Capital budgets, private-stake realization and future financing remain research estimates. Evidence review →

Primary operating KPI: YE27 ARR / commercial MW
Last recorded model update: 2026-09-25

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Investment Thesis

Commissioning, new-contract yield and funding dilution

The re-underwrite separates legacy customers from new commercial cohorts, making contract pricing and deployment the key revenue drivers.
Customer prepayments support construction cash flow, but prepaid revenue release offsets new receipts in deferred revenue.
Asset-backed financing can reduce common-equity issuance; the residual share count depends on debt availability and issuance economics.

Variant perception

Exit ARR is distinct from annual recognized revenue. The investment case depends on commissioning throughout the year and funding that build without counting prepayments twice or subtracting debt alongside full conversion shares.

What could make us wrong

New-cohort yield persistently below $12–15m/MW, deployment below ~700MW, or distressed financing

Key catalysts

>1,000MW annual deployment guidance; comparable new-contract economics

Scenario conclusions are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Company evidence, management guidance and analyst assumptions are distinguished in the analytical model.

Scenario Valuation

Scenario	Probability	Fair value / share	Return vs price
Failure	10%	$0.00	—
Bear	30%	$44.30	—
Base	45%	$265.43	—
Bull	15%	$554.48	—

Probability-weighted fair value: $215.91

AI Cloud EV/YE27 ARR + non-core SOTP − economic net debt

Monte Carlo median: $187.78. Distributional cross-check, separate from the scenario valuation.

Key Base-case drivers · model 2026-09-25

These selected forecast inputs are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Units are shown explicitly; debt funding is not a lender commitment. Reported anchors and management guidance are distinguished in the full model source register.

Input	Base estimate	Units
YE27 commercial capacity	1900.00	MW
New-cohort ARR / MW	20.00	USD m
System capital / MW	50.00	USD m
New secured funding	17.00	USD bn
Operating EBITDA margin	50.00	%
Assumed common issue price	225.00	USD / share

Scenario contributions and downside sensitivity

Derived from the current model above. These are scenario-weighted estimates, not calibrated probabilities of future returns.

Scenario	Weight	Fair value	Contribution to PW
Failure	10%	$0.00	$0.00
Bear	30%	$44.30	$13.29
Base	45%	$265.43	$119.44
Bull	15%	$554.48	$83.17

Bull contributes 38.5% of PW.

Excluding Bull and renormalizing the other weights to 100%: $156.16. Formula: sum of non-Bull weighted values ÷ (1 − Bull weight). This is a conditional diagnostic, not a replacement target.

Scenario mechanisms and weight limitations

The weights are analyst priors. The mechanisms below explain what each case represents; they do not statistically establish the numerical probability. Similar weights across companies should not be interpreted as equal default risk.

Failure · 10%: Deployment, comparable pricing and funding disappoint together, exhausting the modeled equity residual.

Bear · 30%: Slower commercialization and weaker cohort yields raise funding dilution and reduce the value of the operating platform.

Base · 45%: Commercial additions and new-contract yields deliver the operating plan with customer funding and substantial residual common issuance.

Bull · 15%: Faster deployment and stronger new-cohort economics reduce common funding needs; both operating execution and financing must improve together.

Weight changes require an evidence-based review of contract coverage, delivery, financing and balance-sheet capacity. No weights have been adjusted to match the market price.

Replacement-life limitation: the primary ARR-multiple valuation does not explicitly model successive GPU replacement cycles. A four-year versus six-year per-share cash-flow cross-check requires a reconciled technology asset basis, commissioning vintages, renewal revenue and replacement financing. It is not available from the existing multiple model and is not approximated by an arbitrary multiple haircut.

Model

Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; published valuation outputs reflect the published research baseline.

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Research

NBIS · Initiation of Coverage

Nebius Group — Initiation of Coverage

2026-09-20

BUY · High risk · Target $265 USD · 12–18 months

We initiate NBIS with a BUY · High risk recommendation and a $265 target, based on $265.43 Base intrinsic value. This implies 18.5% upside to the 18 September 2026 closing reference of $223.54. Probability-weighted value remains $215.89 and the Monte Carlo median is $187.76; the report retains the model’s financing and source-verification limitations.

Read Research →Download PDF View Coverage →

Revision history

This register begins with the documented baseline below. It is not a complete historical track record. Snapshot values remain fixed; the investment summary reflects the current published model.

2026-09-25 · Security-input review

Contractual accretion and June disclosures reconciled

What changed: Replaced estimated accretion curves with all eight indenture tables; reconciled award counts, original note balances and historical GAAP debt. Corrected capital-cost and payback source wording.

Why: Use disclosed security terms and keep unverified valuation assumptions explicit.

Valuation impact: Current Base $265.43; PW $215.91. Published report snapshot and $265 target retained.

Recorded Base fair value: $265.43
Recorded PW fair value: $215.91

Model date 2026-09-25 · USD per share · DR estimates

Change from recorded 2026-09-20 entry: Base +0.00; PW +0.02 USD per share. These are differences between recorded endpoints, not isolated causal contributions.

Model provenance

Model SHA-256: 0681d7f075949d2cac154d2b46f411fe2246bcd80490d00b6ebf24067591fa4d

This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.

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2026-09-20 · Report publication

Current initiation report published

Read the dated research update →

What changed: Published the initiation report with Base $265.43, PW $215.89 and a $187.76 Monte Carlo median.

Why: Present the production model, financing assumptions and capital-claims framework in the research report.

Valuation impact: Report target: $265 USD · 12–18 months. No model economics changed in this publication update.

Recorded Base fair value: $265.43
Recorded PW fair value: $215.89

Model date 2026-09-13 · USD per share · DR estimates

Change from recorded 2026-09-13 entry: Base +0.00; PW +0.00 USD per share. These are differences between recorded endpoints, not isolated causal contributions.

Model provenance

Model SHA-256: 0dc2ec143222a8fd1d1554b83456be2087dcf85051e7839f978ec8b502765ad7

This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.

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2026-09-13 · Baseline recorded

Published model baseline documented

What changed: Added a concise investment summary and began the public revision register. No valuation assumptions or model economics changed in this update.

Why: Provide a dated starting point for tracking future research and valuation changes.

Valuation impact: No change from this documentation update. Earlier model revisions have not been reconstructed.

Recorded Base fair value: $265.43
Recorded PW fair value: $215.89

Model date 2026-09-13 · USD per share · DR estimates

Model provenance

Model SHA-256: 0dc2ec143222a8fd1d1554b83456be2087dcf85051e7839f978ec8b502765ad7

This fingerprint identifies the model file used to record these values.

View current model · Review source disclosures

Sources

Key Evidence

Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.

Evidence review 2026-09-25 · June award counts, private-investment carrying values, historical debt accounting and all eight contractual accretion schedules verified. Capital budgets, private-stake realization and future financing remain research estimates.

June 30: 271.855218m ordinary shares, 21.065936m pre-funded warrants, 6.234091m unvested RSUs and 6.740600m options at $88.65. June balances are not a September award reconciliation. Primary source →

Note 5 reports ClickHouse carrying value $1.5177bn and Toloka preferred $0.0865bn. Note 4 reports Avride SAFE-related liabilities of $0.1781bn. These are dated accounting values, not market quotes. Primary source →

Note 12: $10.0418bn principal before unamortized discount and issuance costs reconciles to $8.4990bn carrying value. The principal column is not the June cash redemption claim. Primary source →

All eight Exhibit C schedules transcribed; the model uses contractual straight-line interpolation. Original balances include exercised greenshoes and the June conversion/exchange reductions. Primary source →

Q2 2026 results, pages 1–2 · Primary company disclosure
Q2 2026 shareholder letter, commercial, capacity and financial sections · Primary company disclosure
August 24, 2026 closing release · Primary company disclosure
June 2025 convertible notes · Primary company disclosure
September 2025 pricing terms · Primary company disclosure
March 18, 2026 pricing terms · Primary company disclosure
August 2026 pricing terms · Primary company disclosure

Open Evidence Items

These material limitations remain relevant to valuation; a published report does not resolve them.

All-in system capital · Material assumption

Status: Standalone DR budget; management attribution removed.
Why it matters: Higher capital cost increases residual common issuance.
Model treatment: Standalone DR all-in system budget: Base $50m/MW. No verified management cost-per-MW guidance or matched hardware/facility cost bridge supports this figure. It is not reported capex. Capital-cost sensitivities quantify the uncertainty.
Valuation impact: Base at $40 / $50 / $60m per MW: $293.60 / $265.43 / $242.87. Only capital cost changes.

Private holding realization · Residual uncertainty

Status: ClickHouse accounting anchor verified; realization and other net stakes estimated.
Why it matters: Subsidiary financing, employee claims, illiquidity and exit terms determine attributable equity.
Model treatment: Base ClickHouse $1.52bn rounds its reported $1.5177bn June carrying amount; no second illiquidity discount. Other scenario marks are DR net attributable equity estimates, not whole-company enterprise values. Toloka preferred carrying value is an anchor, not a verified total stake valuation. Avride must be net of SAFE and employee claims; its net stake valuation remains unverified.
Valuation impact: Base at 100% / 50% / 0% of assumed private holdings: $265.43 / $262.67 / $259.89.

Post-June awards and future settlement · Residual uncertainty

Status: June awards and contractual accretion verified; subsequent award movements and conversion participation estimated.
Why it matters: Future shares and debt depend on awards, eligibility and settlement elections.
Model treatment: June award counts are verified. Post-June vesting, issuance, forfeitures and new grants are not fully reconciled; economic basic shares include an approximate August exchange count. Contractual accretion is verified. Terminal-price participation is an economic approximation, not proof that the multi-day legal conversion test is met.
Valuation impact: Current Base $265.43 and PW $215.91. Published report snapshot and $265 target retained.

Full Evidence Register

The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.