INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH · NBIS
NBIS — Investment dashboard
Scenario valuation, operating assumptions, funding and investment risk.
Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; headline values reflect the published baseline.
Core modeling rule: IREN retains its frozen new-cohort AI-cloud pricing curve. NBIS has a separately re-underwritten cohort curve. Owned / secured power changes delivery probability, financing capacity and residual infrastructure value, not ARR/MW by itself. Common equity remains the residual funding source.
Reported information, management guidance and Dilikoglu Research estimates are distinguished in Catalysts & Sources. Priors are shown in Failure / Bear / Base / Bull order.
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Scenario value per share
What drives the outcome
Scenario centers are Dilikoglu Research estimates. Company deployment guidance is >1,000MW annually from 2027.
Palantir partnership: watchlist only. No valuation uplift without disclosed economics.
Scenario operating build
USD bn except MW, ARR/MW in USD m, and percentages. Forecast inputs are DR estimates.
Quarterly commissioning and revenue
Mid-quarter commissioning. Quarterly revenue = average opening and ending ARR ÷ 4. No blanket utilization haircut follows commercial MW × ARR/MW.
Cash capex and funding waterfall
Revenue → EBITDA → cash adjustments → change in deferred revenue → operating/customer CFO. New prepayments enter once through deferred revenue.
Opening deployable liquidity is consumed in the funding bridge. Only remaining cash offsets ending debt. Future financing is a DR estimate, not a commitment. Future corporate funding is debt at par because convertible terms are unknown.
Explore assumptions
Explore alternative assumptions without changing the published valuation. Changes apply only in this browser; the Monte Carlo results retain the published assumptions.
Enterprise value to equity value
Non-core stake values
Scenario stake values are DR estimates. Base ClickHouse rounds the reported June carrying value of $1.5177bn to $1.52bn. Carrying value is not a realizable market quote. Other private holdings remain net attributable equity estimates subject to financing and subsidiary claims.
Convertible instruments
Settlement and eligibility assumptions
Debt-like: accreted principal and zero conversion dilution. Conversion-like: original-principal debt equivalent and premium shares only. Excess accretion is extinguished on conversion. A ±5% DR transition band around the estimated trigger approximates expected participation. Terminal price does not establish the contractual trading-history test.
YE27 accretion follows each indenture’s Exhibit C table with straight-line interpolation between contractual dates. Historical June GAAP carrying values are disclosed separately in the source register; post-August carrying values are unavailable and excluded from economic valuation. Make-whole events and actual settlement elections require separate treatment.
Monte Carlo: reproducible baseline
Correlation and distribution assumptions
Input lineage
Reported / Management guidance-commentary / Dilikoglu Research estimate. Unverified assumptions and remaining source limitations are explicitly identified.