Filings and contractual documents take priority, followed by company materials and then third-party context. Forecasts are DR estimates.
Full Evidence Register
The original model ledger below records its verification status at the model date. The dated review above identifies subsequent checks and remaining limitations.
Operating outlook
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Base FY26 growth of 43% is a DR interpretation of slightly above 40%; H1 actual plus reported Q3 monthly revenue translated at an estimated FX rate determines Q4. Base H2 operating margin is the Q3 midpoint, not annual management guidance.
Revenue drivers
Dilikoglu Research estimate · HPC includes AI accelerators, CPUs and relevant packaging; AI and CoWoS are not separately added. HPC demand growth is capped by capacity growth times price/mix. Smartphone and other revenue are separate. Growth fades over ten years.
Capital and depreciation
Dilikoglu Research estimate · 2026 cash capex uses management midpoint less H1 actual. Later years use revenue intensity and a disclosed floor. Cash capex includes settlement of equipment creditors; no second deduction of equipment payables. Straight-line asset vintages use half-year commissioning; useful lives are blended estimates. Operating margins reference the baseline asset schedule; incremental depreciation from capex or useful-life stresses reduces EBIT, with only the associated tax shield benefiting FCFF.
Cash, working capital and claims
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Operating NWC includes receivables, inventory, an estimated operating share of other assets, payables and operating accruals. Existing customer deposits and contract liabilities are deducted once from opening equity cash, held constant thereafter; no new-deposit financing assumed. Opening tax payable, pension, dividends payable and NCI are deducted separately. Other noncurrent operating assets/liabilities have no speculative recovery. Operating accruals include separately presented salary/bonus and employee profit-sharing payables plus other accruals net of customer deposits, contract liabilities and current leases; no salary liability is omitted.
Leases and awards
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Leases are treated as operating costs: add back ROU depreciation and deduct full lease cash outflow, including prepaid lease cash; no second deduction of lease debt. Future lease outflows are DR annualizations. Other intangible amortization remains an economic renewal cost. Issued capital already includes restricted shares, so the baseline adds no incremental existing-award dilution. The optional incremental-share stress represents uncompensated future issuance. Future compensation remains an operating expense, with no addback or second dilution.
Valuation date bridge
Dilikoglu Research estimate · June balance-sheet cash rolls to October 9 using the elapsed fraction of modeled H2 FCFF. Remaining H2 FCFF is discounted separately, avoiding overlap. Declared dividend liabilities are deducted once, not again in interim cash. All interim balances are estimates, not reported October accounts.
Valuation and risk
Dilikoglu Research estimate · FCFF DCF is primary; exit EV/EBIT is an unblended cross-check. Terminal cash flow reinvests g/ROIC of NOPAT. Failure applies a separate 55% enterprise-value recovery for prolonged disruption; it is a stress, not a calibrated geopolitical probability. No permanent ADR premium assumed.
FX
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Company-reported USD translations anchor the baseline. USD forecasts avoid dividing USD cash flow by FX again. FX sensitivity shocks the domestic-cost exposure; it is not a mechanical 1:1 ADR conversion. No hedging gain forecast. Domestic-cost exposure of 35% is a DR stress coefficient, not a reported cost breakdown. H1 lease cash and ROU depreciation use the reported H1 average FX of 31.597; balance-sheet note conversions use June-end FX of 31.918.
Reference price
Reported · October 8 regular-session close $457.99, checked against StockAnalysis and Yahoo historical rows. Not an intraday quote or a price target.
Reported monthly revenue and quarterly translation
Dilikoglu Research estimate · July, August and September NTD revenue are reported observations. Their sum is translated at NTD32/USD, the prior Q3 guidance exchange rate used as a DR proxy; the USD result is not reported Q3 financial revenue. Q4 remains the residual of the scenario FY26 forecast. No unreported Q3 margin or balance sheet is invented.
Overseas fabs and node ramp
Management guidance-commentary · Q2 commentary indicates 2–3 percentage points of overseas gross-margin dilution in early stages, rising to 3–4 points later, and 3–4 points from N2 ramp in H2. Baseline consolidated margin assumptions already include ramp costs; these items are not subtracted again. A separate incremental overseas-cost sensitivity lowers consolidated operating margin by two points.
Quarterly cash-flow phasing
Dilikoglu Research estimate · FY27 revenue shares are Failure 27/26/24/23%, Bear 25/25/25/25%, Base 23/24/26/27% and Bull 22/24/26/28%. EBIT and taxes follow revenue; D&A and lease cash are even; cash capex follows 22/24/26/28%. Quarter-end working capital follows annualized activity and Q4 reconciles to the annual closing convention. This is a reconciled allocation, not customer-level shipment guidance.
Growth duration and funding costs
Dilikoglu Research estimate · Nine fade intervals connect FY27 growth to FY36 terminal growth. Faster five-interval convergence is separately stressed, not calibrated to price. Incremental reserve shortfalls carry issuance discounts of 20/10/5/3% and fees of 2%. The underlying cash shortfall is already in FCFF; only issuance friction is deducted from equity value. Existing debt refinancing remains an assumption.
Company Filings
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Company Materials
Financing / Counterparty Sources
See the company model’s evidence register for applicable disclosures.
Regulatory / Infrastructure Sources
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Industry / Market Data
