INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH · TSM
TSM — Investment dashboard
Scenario valuation, operating assumptions, funding and investment risk.
Model scope: Scenario-based independent research. Interactive controls are diagnostics; headline values reflect the published baseline.
Core modeling rule: Foundry demand creates value through qualified capacity, price/mix, operating margins and cash returns after fab reinvestment. AI and advanced packaging are included in platform revenue, never added twice. Customer deposits are claims on cash; ADR units and currency bases remain explicit.
Reported information, management guidance and Dilikoglu Research estimates are distinguished in Catalysts & Sources. Priors are shown in Failure / Bear / Base / Bull order.
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Foundry operating context
Cash-flow valuation
Remaining 2026 plus ten forecast years, valued at the model date shown above. Primary FCFF valuation includes terminal reinvestment; the exit EV/EBIT valuation is an independent cross-check. Values are USD per ADR, not per Taiwan ordinary share.
Operating & funding model
Scenario assumptions — DR estimates
Explore assumptions
Risk & Monte Carlo
Scenario and simulation probabilities are analyst judgments, not observed frequencies. Severe geopolitical outcomes may exceed the modeled loss range.